Thursday, June 19, 2008

S&P near a bottom?

Bears piled pressure on with some solid selling. But there is an inkling for long term support in the S&P.

Leading the challenge is the Percentage of S&P stocks trading below its 50-day MA. It should be noted this is a weekly chart, so the time frame for a bottom is weeks - not days.


The other watch area is the mid-line Bollinger band which kept things sweet from the 1980's up to the millenium collapse. Bear phases (with respect to the EMAs) have not been very long with the exception of the 2000-2003 collapse. If the mid-line breaks it would set up a much more bearish scenario and the likelihood of a push to the lower Bollinger band, currently lurking around 1,078.


Watch the breadth indicator for leads and note where it's bottom correlates to the position of the S&P at that time. The mid-BB band is at 1,318.


Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website
 
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