Friday, June 06, 2008

Percentage of Stocks above 50-day MA in bear market top territory

It has taken a while for breadth indicators to recover, but some have started to enter territory associated with bear market tops. It doesn't necessarily mean a top is here (indeed, sizable and lengthy divergences are not uncommon between breadth indicators and their parent indices), but it will give an inkling as to whether we are still in a cylical bull market - or more likely, a new cyclical bear market.

The first to crack above the line was the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA:


The breadth indicator has developed a bearish divergence in its supporting MACD trigger line - but it looks ready to go 'green' which should see further gains for the breadth indicator (and the Nasdaq too).

The same chart for the S&P does not look so jolly; although it's May peak was typical of bullish markets. The index continues to underperform relative to Tech and Small caps:



Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website
 
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