Thursday, May 01, 2008

Dow and Nasdaq 100 are indices to watch

The Fed reversal started late in the day, although futures suggest a higher open. The Dow flashed a (bearish) gravestone doji on higher volume, with the 200-day MA lurking overhead to act as resistance. A push back to the 50-day MA looks the most favored response to relieve overbought conditions, but any close higher today would make a strong case for a 200-day MA breakout. Why? The current set-up looks picture perfect from a bear's perspective, so if it didn't play to expectation you would have to be worried (from the bear side).


The Nasdaq 100 has inched its way to the 200-day MA. The gap created at 1,850 looks a logical downside target, but it wouldn't take much buying to push it above its 200-day MA.


 
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