Bears swilling in the muck

An incredible (further) sell off on Wednesday has been followed with a modest pullback on this shorterned trading day. The biggest story of the week are the internals - something you will have no doubt seen mentioned on other blogs. Here is my take.

The Nasdaq Bullish Percent Index is only a couple of points away from entering bear market oversold territory, but is at a bottom for a bull market:


The percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MAs is also lingering close to bear market territory, and like the bullish percents, is at a level which generated the August bounce. Note the developing bullish divergence in Ultimate Oscillator, a good sign for a bottom here.


The Nasdaq Summation Index is perhaps the only internal which still has some downside room to indicate a strong bottom, but an uptick here would not preclude a decent rally:


Today's action will be interesting for those few traders who decide to take a dip in the pool, as things look nicely set for a big gap up on Monday. Enjoy the long weekend and Turkey leftovers.

P.S. Because of another weekend without Broadband there will be no Stockcharts Weekly Review.


Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

Friday's gap downs bring indices close to support. Semiconductor Index at 200-day MA.

Image
Friday's big gaps lower have the potential to become breakdown gaps, but for now, the near term oversell has for a possible move into the gap price vacuum. The index most likely to achieve this in the coming days is the Russell 2000 ($IWM). The Russell 2000 ($IWM) finished with a neutral doji, just above its 50-day MA and in a thick band of support between $207.50 and $210 marked by the summer swing highs. Technicals have followed price action with new 'sell' triggers in On-Balance-Volume and ADX, but intermediate term stochastics haven't reached the mid-line that is typical support in bull markets. Aggressive bulls can look for a move to test the underside of the 20-day MA. The S&P was unable to hold its 50-day MA on Friday's open, and instead found itself toying with the May swing high. More significant support is likely to be found around 5,265, so if there is an undercut of Friday's low then this will be the next port of call. More concer...
Read more

"Dead Cat" Bounce or Something Better?

Image
It's still a little too early to say, but the bounce is in play and "long" is the place to be. There is a huge amount of overhead resistance and the risk:reward remains tight with moves back to Thursday's lows well within expectations. For the S&P, I would be looking for a rally back to test the 200-day MA, or a fast-falling 20-day MA, whichever is the lowest. Real supply won't kick in until 5,700 is tested, and maybe it will have the juice to get to 5,775 before volume selling makes its presence felt. As the index makes this move I expect to see a decent On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal, alongside what will be a weak MACD 'buy'; other technicals are likely to remain bearish.
Read more

Archive

Show more