Saturday, September 15, 2007

Stockcharts.com Weekly review

First up, I would like to welcome visitors coming from TraderMike's site (cheers Mike!). With the upcoming Fed decision due there wasn't a whole lot of action to report for the week.

Interesting to see Richard's
Crockett
's Breakout Setups still top the list - I would have thought the popularity of this list would have suffered over the last month.

Dr. Joe points to next week's Fed meeting:


Joe is keeping a running update on Gulf storms...


But I am unsure of as to were his head-and-shoulder pattern is in the Dow???


Ted Burge has a good chart showing the Nasdaq 100 at resistance:


Jack Chan has an interesting take on the Gold and Silver Index, and AMEX Gold Bugs Index:



Robert New has confirmed the breakdown in Treasury yields - one Fed rate cut coming up.


Richard Lehman hadn't altered his charts too much, but his comments are as good as ever:
9/13 -- The Dow may have been up 1.00% today, but the other indices were nowhere near as strong. The Naz was up one-third of that percentage. Consequently, the small caps are threatening to break their ST upward minichannels, though the large caps are trucking on...along with gold and oil. For now, uptrends are intact. The small caps are therefore the ones to watch for early warning on potential breaks.

9/12 -- Not much change to the overall picture today. I'm watching the minichannel supports closely though because I'm wondering when the higher price of oil, the drag of the credit crunch, and the rising fear of recession will cause portfolio managers to lighten up here.

9/11 -- I did a bit of channel adjusting tonight. The break into upward minichannels today confirms that the September low was a touch of lower channel support, from which we have bounced upward. Some of those lower lines (Dow and SPX) were thus adjusted slightly. Others seem better shown as a channel slope change. Either way, the implication is the same: ST channels are still heading upward from the August bottom and we are in new mini upchannels inside of those.

9/10 -pm- Despite the breaks on Dow and SPX, there were offsetting magic bounces from RUT and SPY. I redrew a number of the minichannels and they too held their ground, though still heading downward. We are still waiting to see if the new short term channels are really heading lower or whether the upchannels from August have simply changed to a lesser upslope. Gold continues on a tear while the XTC continues to weaken. Again...watch the minichannels for the next clue.

Maurice Walker is another good weekly summarizer:
9/14 The market dropped after August retail sales spooked investors emotions, but then a recovery took place through the rest of the trading session. If retail sales continue to shrink, it could be an indication that the consumer is tapped out and overextended. It could be hard on the economy if we see consecutive month to month declines in consumer spending, and could lead to an economic slow down. But more economic data be released soon and we will have the Fed meeting behind us shortly, which should paint a picture as to the overall health of the economy.

The indices closed relatively flat today, ahead of next weeks Fed meeting. One of the concerns many Economists have, is that the credit crisis continues and that the consumer stops spending, due to lack of funds or fear. Now if the Fed cuts rates it will stimulate the economy. The problem is that if the rate cuts are to little to late, just as we saw in 2000, then the market will still go down. The Fed cut could already be priced into the market. Rates decline in a falling market in order to stimulate the economy. Now I don't know the future, but if we manage to break above resistance then the odds favor that the advance will resume, ending the correction. But if we cannot break above resistance or it fails to become support, then we may continue in correction mode.

We also could see a head fake, in that a breakout may occur after the Fed announcement only to reverse a day or two later, resuming the previous downtrend. So have your guard up and be ready for anything.

The indices continue to have Bear Flags right at key areas of resistance on the daily charts. We only have RSI readings in the 50's on the daily charts. The 60 minute charts have a new lower peak on the RSI, which suggests negative divergence and a possible pull back. If a slight pull back occurs in the 60 minute timeframe it could set up positive divergences on the MACDs in that same timeframe. Thank you for your vote.


www.thechartpatterntrader.blogspot.com

He has labeled a speculative Elliot Wave Count for the Dow. If his black line count is true then markets could be in line for a 10-16% decline from the top of wave "B":


Another spin are Gann lines in the S&P (applicable for the Dow too):


His ETFs show channel resistance breached for the DIA and SPY:


He has an head-and-shoulder pattern marked on his Dow chart (perhaps the one Joe had alluded too):


Rodney Gorchinsky is all in - his emphasis given:

Thu, Sept 13/07 @ 11:00pm
This is a special update. We have identified that the 'Stock Market Crash' has started as of 1:20pm, today, with the Dow, tagging 13,469. There may not be a recovery until Friday, November 9, 2007.

Tue, Sept 11/07 @ 9:00pm
We have elected to update our Crystal Ball commentary earlier than originally indicated. The reason being, we have focused our 'Crash Alert' timing in a more precise manner. Zenit has determined that the stock market crash will begin over the next 6-trading days or earlier, and the crash should shave off 18% to 34% from the close of today. This correlates a Dow bottom to be 9,000 to 11,000. After the crash it should take about 6-months to pick up the pieces. Thus, expect a tremendous amount of volatility forthcoming. In closing, our 'Crash Alert' remains on from Saturday August 25, 2007. The NYMT Fund is in a 100% cash position. And, our next Crystal Ball commentary should be when we issue BUY signals on MS, MER, LEH and JPM for the NYMT Fund. So, stay tuned.

Disclaimer: The content in this chart book is for leisure purposes only. The content is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Do not use the content to make any investment decisions.

This is his Dow Chart:


Howard Blackstein is another optimist (Caps are his posting):

9/14-P.M.-LAST NIGHT ,I MENTIONED THAT HOMES WILL NOT BE SOLD;TODAY,CASH STRAPPED HOVNANIAN ANNOUNCED A 20% REDUCTION IN ALL OF THEIR NEW DEVELOPMENTS. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL THE HOMEOWNERS IN HOVNANIAN DEVELOPMENTS IN AZ,CA,DE,FL,IL,KY,MD,MN,NJ,NY,NC,OH,PA,SC,TX,AND WV. YOUR HOUSES HAVE INSTANTANEOUSLY BEEN DEVALUED BY 20%. AND LET US NOT FORGET ALL OF THOSE LUCKY FOLKS LIVING NEAR THOSE DEVELOPMENTS-YOU ,TOO,HAVE INSTANTLY LOST 20% OFF OF THE VALUE OF YOUR HOUSES. BOY, THIS WILL REALLY DO WONDERS FOR CONSUMER SPENDING. I TOLD YOU EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT WE WERE ALREADY IN A RECESSION-THIS EVENT JUST CONFIRMS IT.

NOTHING,AND I MEAN NADA, HAS HAPPENED THAT HAS MADE ME ALTER MY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. BATTEN DOWN THE HATCHES , HERBIE AND BEN ARE MAKING ONE BIG MESS OF THIS COUNTRIE'S ECONOMICS!!!!9/13-P.M.-ANOTHER BIG RALLY DAY,AS THE MARKET ANTICIPATES A RATE CUT. THE MARKET IS BEING HELD UP BY FOREIGN MONEY,WHICH IS COMING IN AND BUYING UP U.S. COMPANIES ON THE CHEAP!!!!!

LET US CLEAR AWAY ALL OF THE NONSENSE ,AND LOOK AT THE FACTS-THE FED HAS MADE IT'S HOBSONS CHOICE-THE FED WILL ATTEMPT TO RESCUE THE ECONOMY BY THE WHOLESALE PRINTING OF DOLLARS,AND THEY WILL LET THE DOLLAR SINK!!!HOW DO I KNOW THIS? THE TECHNICAL SIGNS ARE ALL AROUND YOU-GOLD AND CRUDE HAVE BROKEN OUT TO NEW HIGHS,AND THEY REFLECT ,MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE,WHAT THE SMART MONEY THINKS OF THE DOLLAR'S FUTURE!!! THE FED TALKS A GOOD GAME,BUT JUST LIKE HERBERT HOOVER II,THEY ARE PATHETIC IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO SNOOKER ANYONE WITH AN I.Q. ABOVE 90.
AS SURE AS THE SUN RISES IN THE EAST, HOUSING WILL TURN UGLIER,JOBS WILL NOT BE CREATED, AND OUR STANDARD OF LIVING WILL DETERIORATE,AS FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS PULL THE RUG OUT FROM UNDER US BY SELLING TREASURIES. OUR FRIENDS JUST RETURNED FROM A CRUISE OF THE MEDITERRANIAN. YOU WON'T READ THIS IN AN AMERICAN NEWSPAPER,BUT NO ONE IN EUROPE WANTS DOLLARS. THE MERCHANTS WANTED EUROS!!!! THE FANTASY GAME IS ENDING, AND WE WILL BE LEFT HOLDING THE BAG.

THE FED FORCED BANKS TO BORROW

But my favorite chart of his is his 3-month T-Bill:


Plenty of negativity out there - just the kind of situation set up for a Fed rally!




 
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