Friday, August 17, 2007

Weekly review

I have already commented in my Trade Ideas post how today's buying had all the makings of a short covering day, with little in the way of substance buying. The net result for the week was the leave the markets in a broad quagmire of volatility with support and resistance broadly defined. The index which probably has the most benefit - purely on the basis it is the most beat down - is the Russell 2000:

Large caps played more to form with the Dow finishing the week with a picture perfect test of the 200-day MA. The Dow is a good example of how Bears currently run the show; dips in May, June and early July were bought up quickly - but the later July dip was sold off at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. So how will the current rally fare (61.8% retracement at 13,225)?

Unfortunately, the S&P has fewer redeeming qualities as the 200-day MA is support no more and the 50-day MA did its best to contain an earlier rally:

The Nasdaq is another index to feel the wrath of the 50-day MA as resistance. Note the early attempts of a rally in Money flow were quickly quashed as selling overwhelmed the index:

Given the deeply oversold nature of the indices I suspect markets will enter an awkward sideways period as traders feel out the root canal of the week's lows as potential long standing support.