Sunday, July 22, 2007

Stockcharts.com Weekly review

Bears brought the week down after the previous week's solid gains. The damage wasn't enough to reverse the prior week's bull buying so what had the Stockcharters got to say about it? This is a shortened list as few posters have updated their charts in recent weeks:

Dr. Joe opens with his Dow Industrial chart - but again has not marked in his 'sell' trigger for full stochastics:


His Euro/Dollar index finally shows the breakdown in the dollar:


Although there is still monthly support for the dollar:


Robert New is trackinig the 10-year yield - still stuck under resistance:


Although the 20+ year Treasury Bond Fund looks ready to advance:


For the NYSE Robert is looking for 10,400:


Richard Lehman again summarizes nicely:
7/21 -- A number of short term upchannels have been broken, though notably, the QQQ upchannel remains intact. Downchannels are not terribly steep yet, but momentum in the short term has ebbed and is heading downward. ST downchannel lines are preliminary thus far but should become more clear by Monday.

Note: Next week I'm on vacation and may not get to update the comments every day.

7/19 -- Charts are updated but nothing really changed today. Watch out for expiration day.
7/18 -- There was channel magic today in the Dow and XTC with near magic on the Naz as these indices touched lower channel lines and bounced smartly. Everything remains in upchannels and the breaks in gold and oil are looking more like slope changes only, but still heading upward.

7/17 -- Basically the picture is much the same as yesterday. A little weakness is showing - gold and oil especially -- but thus far it is just one of those 'rolling corrections' in stocks that never really go down much.

7/16 -- The Dow didn't show it, but weakness started to turn up in several other indices. SPX looks to be rolling over in its short term upchannel, as do the small caps. And the XAU and XLE are finally breaking their short term uptrends. Not a big alarm yet, but a yellow flag for some continued weakness in the short term.

Some of his charts follow:




Steven Swink has some interesting gold charts:



Maurice Walker always has a good weekend summary of the action:
7/21 Commentary: The Market moved lower on Friday as disappointing earnings from Google fell short of the streets expectations, taking Google down 5 % and brought a sharp selloff in the Market. Yesterday added another distribution day to the mix, which makes 3 for the Dow & Nasdaq, and it is the 4th for the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 dropped below its previous minor top of 1540 yesterday. Given that violation, I have decided to reconstruct that pattern, reclassifying it as bull Flag pattern rather than a Rectangle. My reason for doing this is due to the descending diagonal slant to the formation, and the sell off on Friday came to rest upon the descending slope of the pattern.

The Flag is not with problems in that it exceeds the 4 weeks maximum allowed for successful pattern development. The patterns odds of success decrease with an expanded phase of development, and can be more prone to failure.

But with that said ,the continuation pattern successfully broke out moving in the expected direction of the previous trend. So the move lower on the S&P 500 appears to just be a backtest of the Flag pattern. If further violations occur such as a breakdown of support, then that would cause me to be short term cautious, but for now support remains in tact.

The oscillators on the 60 minute charts are resetting, which could allow the indices to find a new minor bottom early next week. The Histogram now has positive divergence on the indices which suggests that we are nearing a minor bottom. The Dow still could backtest its Rectangle and fall another 159 points to complete its backtest. Which would cause the Dow to give up just over 1 percent. The Nasdaq continues to hold support at 2675, but could move laterally along with S&P 500 until the Dow completes a backtest to support. Please support us with your vote.

Longs pages 15-19
ETFs pages 19-25

http://thechartpatterntrader.blogspot.com

Longs: USO, OIL, HHH, PPH, XLU, RTH, GLD, XLF, IAI

The posted information is for educational purposes only

Here are some of his charts:




Finally, an interesting perspective on the Nasdaq of his:




 
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