Monday, July 02, 2007 Weekly review

A little slow with getting this post up (a sick baby has a habit of intervening!). The week ended in a struggle between the bulls and bears. Bulls probably hold the edge after Wednesday's gains but this could change into the coming shortened week, or double mini-weeks.

Joe Reed has a nice chart showing the Nasdaq Bullish Percent and the bearish divergence between it and the parent index, a non-confirmation for the bounce - it's the first time I have seen this chart from him and its a good one:

His 10-year yield chart is trading close to potential gap support, but I suspect a move down to 4.9% is more likely:

Joe looks to have gone with a 'called top' in the S&P:

and a breakout in Oil:

Ted Burge has the market in a neutral position. It is interesting to see he has resistance for the Nasdaq 100 above the recent high - a chance for a test (and therefore, more upside)?

The point-n-figure chart would appear to favor more upside with a target of 1,970:

Matthew Frailey has a broader 10-year yield chart. With Full Stochastics oversold there may be a bounce back to resistance:

He has suggested a significant top in the Dow based on EWT:

An interesting Fib retracement may have completed in the Nasdaq:

Without conflicting with Ted Burge's assessment of the Nasdaq 100 there is an interesting convergence of support and resistance:

Jack Chan has illustrated a trendline 'sell' for Energy Select Sectors (XLE):

But not yet for the Oil Services Holders:

Back to the indices and Robert New is suggesting there could be plenty more juice in the tank for the Nasdaq with resistance up at 2,900:

While the Wilshire Index holds to a clean breakout and backtest:

but this has yet to repeat in the S&P:

Robert's Oil chart is sticking with the breakout, but has noted the lack of follow through in oil stocks:

While the 10-year yield has reversed off resistance and could see strength for utilities and financials:

Mitchell Meana is on bear watch for the Diamonds (DIA):

Richard Lehman summarized the week as so:
7/1 -- The sharp drop Friday afternoon may have deflated the bullish sense of things, but the recovery left a bottom point that gives us a lower line on this new uptrend. That uptrend is looking to contain wide swings like the prior downtrend. So, as long as Friday's low holds, the odds favor the short term uptrend continuing. However, there is nothing to say the entire corection is over yet and there is still a good bit of room below this in the long term charts.

6/28 -- Despite the usual Fed-related whipsaw at 2-3 pm today, the indices all pretty much continued their short term uptrends, confirming the breaks that occurred yesterday. There is not enough data to draw confident trend lines just yet, but the give-back action at the end of the day says we may get a low on Friday that would enable us to draw some lines by then. Longer term, this does not have a look of a bottom yet.

6/27 -- Today's opening low took the major indices right down to lower line support with amazing accuracy and the subsequent bounce came all the way back to the upper lines by 3 pm ET. Then, after stalling at those resistance lines, the indices punched through to break into short term uptrends now. The charts have been precise on many of the line touches - particularly on the Dow. We may see a retest in the morning of these breaks and that would provide a potential point to go long if you aren't already.

6/26 -- Declines continued in well-defined short term channels with the Dow making a precision touch of its upper channel line before retreating. Some indices are approaching lower channel lines again which could mean another bounce, but the long term charts show parallels to the March decline whioch would take things a good bit lower yet. Charts on gold, oil and communications accelerated downward, but are approaching short term support potential.