Sunday, June 17, 2007

Weekly Review

A crazy week of ups and downs. Bulls took the honors by the weeks close, but what had the Stockcharters to say about it?

Joe Reed summarizes the week here:

He sees resistance in the 1,530-1,540 range for the S&P:

With a breakout in crude oil prices:

Ted Burge has a 30-min Qs chart which shows a solid hold of support at $47.65:

with an ascending triple top breakout using the average true range point-n-figure chart:

It is a tale of two cities for the Ultra Q Pro shares fund (upside target of $108.57):

and Ultra Q Short fund (downside target of $42.00):

Matthew Frailey has a good chart showing the 30-year Treasury bond price - a major test of secular support is at hand:

with the break of 10-month resistance in the 10-year Treasury note yield clearly evident:

He has an interesting EWT wave count for the Dow - has a wave 5 completed? I haven't heard of the 20-day MA been used in this way for a wave count.

Similar count for the Nasdaq:

and Nasdaq 100:

Mitchell Meana has gone for a slightly different theme for his EWT wave count - the recent high is a "B" of an A-B-C correction (part of a wave 4 - with an upleg wave 5 to come):

Robert New has stuck with a large broadening pattern for the Nasdaq. Negative divergences are a concern for the RSI and MACD:

While the Wilshire 5000 weekly chart is up-up-and away!

The rising wedge is no more for Oil:

With the monthly 10-year resistance level breached. Could this go as high as 68.23 (6.8%???):

Asher Pinto gives a good case for the bulls:

Again, I finish with the comments of Richard Lehman (his charts are available by following his link - or indeed for any of the Stockcharters mentioned above):
6/16 -- One has to wonder if anyone has the guts to short anymore. Short term action has now recaptured pretty much all of the June 4-8 decline and short term channels have been adjusted to steeper slopes. We are now right back at the top of the world again. There is nothing that says we can't back off slightly and then set new highs all around, but we are vulnerable again to a short term decline now at any time.

A possible larger channel scenario is now evident that encompasses the short term zigzags as part of a wide channel that is rising somewhat but at a very low angle. That allows each of these run-ups to establish a nominal new high before backing off again. The Naz ST charts show this best.

6/15 -- Check out the Naz (COMP) 5-min and hourly charts for a new channel that has now appeared and which suggests it hit resistance this morning.

6/14 -- The net of today's action is to continue most indices in their new short term upchannels and in some cases accelerate them. They are at or near channel tops now and could retreat within the uptrend, but are definitely in upchannels. The case for possible higher tops is still there, but a failure would likely usher in another meaningful downleg.