Sunday, March 25, 2007

Weekly Review

There was a bit more to last weeks action after my St. Patrick's day hiatus. What had the Stockcharters got to say about it:

Joe Reed has a good chart showing possible defensive issues to consider when markets are in the in process of topping.

Can't say for sure he called it, but this is what he had to say on the Dow Jones top (check my past reviews for confirmation):

In his defense, I do like his Fibonacci retracement marked on the NYSE:

Following on from this, Ted Burge has a good support/resistance chart for the NYSE. Note the pinpoint resistance line currently rested at 9,358 with support at 9,148:

Ted's semiconductor index suggests resistance is not to be found until 149.6:

While the Qs knock around $44.10 support with $45.12 resistance to aim for:

Matthew Frailey has taken a more negative tone. Looking for an A-B-C correction in the S&P, but this is a wave 4 of a larger five wave pattern.

His bullish percents point to the low in the S&P:

But not in the Nasdaq (although one could argue for a near touch of 10):

Mitchell Meana has kept with a bearish tone, leading with a downward target of 1,578 in the Nasdaq 100. His analysis runs in conflict with Matthew Frailey who is looking at an A-B-C pattern of a wave 4, versus his 1-2 of a new wave down:

He has also started with a 1-2 correction, of a five wave pattern down, in the Wilshire 5000 index (although he hasn't marked similar corrections in the other indices as such):

He has also gone for such in the Nasdaq Summation index:

Jack Chan has shown bullish MACD 'buy' triggers combined with trendline breaks for a number of commidity ETFs; chiefly precious metals and energy. Head directly to his list for further details.

Robert New is looking at the possibility of bullish wedges forming in the indices:

I shall close with the work of Richard Lehman, who has perhaps the best charts of all the Stockcharters. He said this last week

3/22 -- The short term channels (really minichannels) are 7 days old now and remarkably well defined. In fact, they are more reliable than the larger channels. Most are seeing sideways action that indicates more upward movement could be yet to come. I drew in a potential larger upchannel on this Dow chart and on the SPX hourly, but right now they are tentative.

3/21 -- There was a LOT of channel magic out there today! And the best part is when it works on the nose in a big move day and across multiple indices. Every major index hit at least one short term channel line DEAD ON today and the QQQQ actually hit both a lower and then an upper line.

We are now at the top of our latest minichannels and likely to back off. The larger picture, though is more challenging since there is no clear larger channel at work yet. If you look at the hourly and daily charts (SPX particularly), though, you will see my revised scenario that says we are still in a downtrend and have just hit the upper line in most cases.

3/20 -pm- We have breaks across the board to the upside, but pretty modest thus far. I can draw a minichannel in most instances, but not a larger channel yet. That says this may be just another leg of a larger move. I will be watching this minichannel closely for a break back to the downside before long.

3/20 -midday- Most short terms charts are now showing breaks to the upside, so an uptrend appears to be in progress. Will be drawing in some upchannels as things progress...

Tags of 3-year support look likely; Dow is given as the example here: