Monday, February 05, 2007

Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com

Newsletter, Members Click Here. To Subscribe - click Bull icon.The week closed with solid gains for the Russell 2000, Dow, and S&P. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 spent the bulk of the week watching from the sidelines, but did manage one-day of decent gains to keep their net movement bullish. There were bullish MACD trigger 'buys' for the NASDAQ and semiconductor index (but as yet, not the NASDAQ 100). This follows from earlier MACD 'buy' triggers in the Russell 2000, Dow, and S&P. It was not all plain sailing. The semiconductor index held 50-day MA resistance overhead and MACD bearish divergence dating back to September. MACD bearish divergences are in play for the NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, S&P and Russell 2000 - and these will dominate even if last week's breakouts hold. Volume also failed to impress, but there is enough momentum from the bulls to keep on-balance-volume in line with bullish buying.

The tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] saw further gains with new closing highs for the $BPCOMPQ followed by strong up ticks in the $NASI and $NAA50. There is enough upside momentum in these indicators to suggest a 1-2 month rally could evolve - but over a longer time frame I would remain skeptical. Penny stocks thrive in this environment as better quality stocks are closer to their fair value and don't generate the speculative interest common during cycle lows in the market. Buyer beware.


 
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