Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com
Supporting tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] haven't indicated any stall to the decline. The MACD, ultimate oscillator, short term stochastics [14,3] and now bullish trend strength (-DI > +DI) of the $BPCOMPQ all favor further weakness for an indicator which has wavered little since the start of December. The $NAA50 had given sparks of life but the indicator measuring the number of Nasdaq stocks over the 50-day MA made a bearish cross of its 5-day EMA which jeopardizes the break of resistance in the ultimate oscillator and the MACD trigger 'buy' signal (both weak bull signals - but each had the potential to turn into something better - this is looking less likely now). The $NASI (Nasdaq Summation index) has been in decline since November and bearish strength in this indicator has been increasing all the time. All three indicators favor a bigger decline in the parent NASDAQ/NASDAQ 100.
As for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll I remain bearish (which, I have been since September 23rd). Based on current action I am looking to April as a potential reaction bottom and a time to turn bullish - but time will tell. Keep the bulk of your reserves in cash and play small with any money you wish to expose to the market.
Newsletter update:
UTF hit its most recent stop after a decent run. The utility fund first featured as a Subscriber pick for May 25th and as a Breakout for June 30th and again for July 20th, September 1st, November 17th and December 13th. The Subscriber pick closed for a 25% gain and the Breakout plays for a 17% gain, 14% gain, 7% gain, 2% gain and a 2% loss. Subscriber pick BPT featured for October 19th and November 16th. The two plays closed for a flat gain and a 3% loss respectively. FMT gapped into its stop, ending the November 10th Subscriber pick for a 7% loss. NVD hit its stop after a promising start. The December 18th play closed for a 9% loss.
Fallond