Monday, October 02, 2006

Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com

Newsletter, Members Click HereIt was another relatively quiet day for the markets as bears made their presence felt into the closing hours, but were unable to push markets down enough to break below Thursday's lows. Volume eased in line with the quiet action. Technically, there was little damage done. The areas to watch on Monday will be support in the Russell 2000 and semiconductor index; both are key lead indices for bull markets; both are underperforming relative to large caps [Dow and S&P] and NASDAQ 100 respectively; both are only a few points shy of a support break. The other changes came in the tech market internals [$NASI, $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ] as the $NASI generated a 'sell' trigger in the CCI, and the $NAA50 produced a bearish cross of the 5-day EMA as a small pennant formation takes shape around 1,250 resistance.

You will notice a change in the icon for October, switching from Bull to Bear. I suspect a 6-month top will be in place some time during October. It is not a cue to sell everything on Monday, but is instead a warning sign to limit taking new positions, to tighten stops in existing positions (to the most recent reaction low), and start building up cash reserves for the next reaction bottom. When I called a bearish turn in February of this year, the NASDAQ 100 and semiconductor index had topped in January, but the NASDAQ clung on until April and Small + Large caps held up until May. The rally is running on thin air - but fumes can be potent intoxicants.

I have maintained a bearish 30-day stance in the Blogger Sentiment Poll for a second week in a row. Bearish sentiment reached its highest recording since the poll started in July. How will it play out?

Newsletter update:

RAH featured as a Breakout for August 10th and again for September 11th. The former play closed for an 8% gain, the latter a 5% loss. AXS featured as a Subscriber pick for August 8th and September 29th, and as Breakout for August 16th. The Subscriber plays closed for a 17% gain and a 1% loss, the Breakout play closed for a 9% gain. GSTL hit its raised stop. The stock featured to Subscribers for July 6th and September 14th; the former closed for a 27% gain, the latter closed flat.


 
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