Sunday, October 01, 2006 Weekly review

Not much ado after early promise on large cap breakouts. Late Friday trading was a shot across the bows for bulls. What did the Stockcharters have to say about the week?

Dr. Joe tops the list on monthly hits, but he hadn't any new charts to lead out with. His summary information was posted here - he appears mostly bullish:

also his S&P chart looks to confirm:

although the Dow has yet to do likewise:

Mitchell Meana was more forthcoming in his assessment, leading out with a 5th wave high in the Nasdaq, with potentially worse to come - the July low is looking to be a critical support area for the bulls:

His close up Nasdaq chart also has key resistance marked too (78% fib retracement):

His Qs chart lists an upside target - while noting the negative divergence in stochastics (I have shown this chart of his before - but I am not sure if he had listed a price target back then):

His Nasdaq Summation Index also shows an important test (and probable reversal) off resistance:

Robert New again leads out with his excellent weekly review:
Week in Review....Another strong week for the indices to cap off approximately 4-5% gains for the quarter. The SP 500 and Dow both made their double bottom projections of 1340 and 11,700-50 respectively and most indices have now formed some nice looking bases but will need to form handles at some point with a test of their 20/50 moving averages. We do note some negative divergences on some indices which moved some short term trades to cash. Whether we pullback here or slightly higher remains in question but we are now quite overextended on most indices per our oscillators. RIMM came in with a strong report last night but even in light of that the indices remain somewhat winded. The Dow tagged its All Time High of 11,700-750 resistance this week but also got cold feet as the week went on. The Large Cap stocks continue to lead while the Small/Mid Caps continue to lag the past 3-4 months. Many nice looking bases have setup as evidenced by our Sector Charts on Pages 8-12 but most are in need of a 20/50 test/handle. Retail, Healthcare, Financials, Chemicals, Software and selected Commodities are forming some nice bases. Big picture a period of light volume consolidation would serve to setup many charts in bullish fashion.

His lead page is full of good charts - click on the link attached to his name to get them. He had also noted the bearish divergence in the Nasdaq as noted by Mitchell previously, but he also points to another one on the weekly Nasdaq chart (extend his triangle support line connecting 2002 lows to 2005 lows and you will have resistance for the current rally, somewhere around 2,350):

Here are his charts in favor of new bases in the large cap indices:

Ted Burge opened with a simple statement:
With 1115 funds at 52 week highs and 11 at 52 week lows, it's gotta be cause someone somewhere is buying.

He had the Semiconductor index at support:

While Small caps took a beating:

Rodney Gorchinsky wasn't evading his bearish opinion on the Dow after it broke to new highs during the week:

Sep 29/06 *** 15% Profit and 75% Win/Loss ***

Alerts, Transcripts, Commentary and the American Flag Market Timing Fund

Black Hole: 10,600-9,700 by October 1-31, 2006 (see Chart 3, page 1)
Uranium Stock Watch: Trigon, symbol:TEL.V, $1.00 by December 2006 (see Chart 9D, page 2)

Sep 29/06 Daily Commentary
4:30pm: Jesse Livermore was one of the best stock operators in the 1900's and the FED is the best stock operator in the 2000's. Over the past 3-months, the FED has done a brilliant job of pumping the markets, using short-term loans, which caused Hedge Funds to cover short positions and International and US Money Mangers to go long in order to justify ROI in their portfolios. And now, these same International and US Money Managers are left holding the bag, and are expecting the FED to support the market; as in the Plunge Protection Team (PPT). Well, expectation is often a dirty word. The American Flag Market Timing Fund closed at +12.12%. Our Back Holes remains active. Have a great weekend. Thanks for your emails and your kind votes. Working with you to be #1.

Noon: The FED pumps more cash into the market this morning and nudges the Dow to its all-time high; however, it appears it will take cash from the money mangers to rip through 11,750. Therefore, we have marked in yellow on Charts 1A, 1B, 2 and 3 a ceiling of major resistance between 11,750-11,725, while our trading range of 11,725-11,480 remains active. The American Flag Market Timing Fund is running at +11.28%.

His 15-minute Dow chart will be of little comfort to the bulls:

So the week may have ended quietly, but markets still have it all to do. I will leave with a link to Stephen Stewart's public list; his analysis is for individual momentum stocks (no market commentary) - but 'dummytraders' would do well to keep his watchlist on theirs and be prepared for those low risk entry days.