Sunday, September 10, 2006 Weekly review

It was a funny week for the markets, it all started brightly - but ended with a whimper. What did the public listers have to say about it (if you are interested in my own public list, it can be found here)?

Joe Reed gives a good overlay of the Nasdaq Summation Index and the Nasdaq - I don't know if he promoted this at the time of the actual bottom, and not some three months after as he has done now - because it is a nice chart (but of meaningless use now).

However, Joe's AMEX chart is of much greater use now; it is interesting to see how he uses Full Stochastics to mark support buy signals, but not sell signals(?) Unlike previous support buys for the index (which occurred when Full stochastics were oversold), this one doesn't look likely to hold since Full stochastics are overbought, and on a 'sell' trigger, as the index tests the 2004-2006 support line. Also note the big bearish divergence in the RSI. Long time AMEX bulls should watch this support line closely.

Joe had this to say on Crude Oil:

Flirting with Support Break and Trend Break.
On the other hand, it hit RSI 30 again which has Nailed previous Major Bottoms. Pay attention and see where it goes in the next few days.

Mitchell Meana has a nice summary chart for the Diamonds (DIA). Certainly looks a confirmed breakdown (MACD 'sell' and bearish wedge breakdown, just below resistance).

Mitchell's SPY chart is much the same:

But his QQQQ chart is in the process of an A-B-C correction (which if true, could see the "B" leg of the move down to $36.50, before rallying again - likely to the 200-day MA).

Robert New has his eyes fixed on a potential (bearish) head-and-shoulders in the NASDAQ. Below is his end-of-week update, which couldn't be clearer:

Mild week of downside with the Commodities continuing to make some major breakdown moves nearly across the board which is ultimately good for the economy and inflation. Meanwhile the broad market corrected back some but we are starting to see a number of nice bases show up in scans. We still suspect that we've got some downside testing near term before we hit an actionable low. Key supports come in on the Nasdaq at the 2110-40 area, 1265-80 on the SP 500, and 11,200-50 on the Dow. Continue to keep close watch on the SOX which continues to find critical support at its 50 MA. While many sectors and indices are still in difficult to trade wide and loose bases we'll be watching the action closely near term to see if our patterns start to tighten up and volume starts to dry up on the downside. Near term continue to remain cautious as our patterns take shape.

Below is his NASDAQ chart, with the potential head-and-shoulder pattern illustrated:

Ted Burge takes a much bolder (and bullish) stance:

There are no sell signals on any of the equity indices and they are all at or above the 20MA and in some cases the 50 as well

he also reported:
Reversal to O's is normal activity, and with 135 new buy signals in the last 5 days compared to only 83 sell signals. The techical indicator report has made a major shift and you can see and print reports for today at:

Just like any other day, we buy with support and sell with resistance. Clear as a bell, not always easily understood.

Based on this, his Russell 2000 (IWM) chart looks interesting:

Richard Lehman has a lovely, clear chart for the Dow, sans the optimism of Ted:

Here is my take on the Dow (please feel free to Vote For My Public List at the bottom of the link) :

The best chart I have which shows a top in the markets (at least for Tech stocks) comes from the Nasdaq Stocks Above 50 day Moving Average indicator. Note the 'sell' trigger in the MACD trigger line, the pin-point reversal off 1,250, a short term [14,3] slow stochastics 'sell' trigger, and the breakdown of May-Sep bullish divergences in the Ultimate Oscillator and +DI line:

Jack Chan keeps some very simple (and informative charts). If you don't like all the fuss, then his is a list to follow. I presented last week his chart on the $XAU, which had looked an impending upside breakout - now it tells a different story:

But his Oil Services Holders chart (OIH) is his lead chart of choice (and with good reason). Shorts will be pleased - watch for the "Death Cross" in the 50-day/200-day MAs:

Finally, a big Thank You! to Brett Steenbarger and Downtowntrader for linking to previous versions of this review. I always appreciate the blog traffic.