Monday, September 11, 2006

Odds Maker: Follow Up

This a follow up to my initial test system for Trade Ideas Odds Maker. Brett Steenbarger wrote a good piece on whats good for the goose, is not necessarily good for the gander. The Odds Maker is a quick way to keep your system trading honest. It allows you to screen out systems inappropiate for the time frame your trading, or (more importantly), highlight when a system which worked under one set of market conditions, may not work under another.

The system I am using is detailed in my original post.



What I had omitted were the settings for the Odds Maker:



When I had first ran the Odds Maker, the market conditions covering the test period for the software looked like this:



and the Odds Maker reported this:



The most recent test period for the Odds Maker is as follow:



and the Odds Maker output was:



For the record, holding to the next day's open worked well the first time I ran the Odds Maker. Now, there is less of a difference between a sell "at the close" and a sell "at the next day's open".

Before:



Now:



The market conditions for the two test periods were relatively similar, but gave two, quite different outputs. Both were profitable, just the degree of profitability was different. Of interest would be the perfomance when the 3-week trend was down (this will be a later post). The Odds Maker is a quick way to judge the health of a trading system and if necessary, provides notice when it could be time to change to a potentially more profitable system.

If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.


 
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