Friday, December 05, 2014

Recovering from a Cold.

Getting back up to speed after a head cold. Not a whole lot to report, despite the roller coaster ride in European markets yesterday. The S&P is primed to push to new highs, yesterday's doji left it pressuring resistance.


The Nasdaq may be shaping a 'bear flag', which may give shorts something to work with today. Key breakout support remains at 4,610, and below that there are Fib retracements for bulls to work.


The Semiconductor Index has been a stalwart of the November-December rally, but it finished with an indecisive 'spinning top'; this is likely nothing more than a pause in the advance, but any stall here will help bears work the 'bear flag' in the Nasdaq.


The Russell 2000 appears to be range bound, and building a 'handle' in preparation for a challenge on 1,210 resistance.


So for today, watch the Nasdaq for any breakdown opportunity. Existing longs have little reason to sell; the seasonal Santa Rally will likely keep things modestly bubbling along until end of year. If coming in as a fresh buyer, then things look a little more difficult: Monday's lows are probably where risk is measured from, although I would think the chance for whipsaw here is quite high. The Russell 2000 may be the most stable in its range, and therefore the least likely to whipsaw a new long position out.

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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com, and Product Development Manager for ActivateClients.com. You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com.

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