Weekly charts are always good at keeping things simple. The S&P pushed itself out of its tight range with higher volume accumulation on a new 'buy' On-Balance-Volume trigger. We saw something similar in late 2023 that kicked off the next phase of the rally - will history repeat here?

With some semblance of market normality restored - or at least until the deadline for 50% European tariffs passes - markets are trading back at post election highs. The early year dip will have rotated weak hands and those who had profits to take from buying in 2024, out of the market, leaving a new set of opportunistic buyers and long term holders in place. Technically, things are also looking alot more positive after speed bumps in On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI. Going from the top we have a Russell 2000 ($IWM) making a second attempt at breaking past its 200-day MA for the month of June; remember, triple reversals off resistance are rare, so look for this move higher to stick. All supporting technicals are net bullish, alongside very strong bullish momentum. Shorts will have their work cut out trying to take profits, and any shorts left will likely have a painful Friday.

Monday offered bullish piercing patterns, and it was Tuesday that delivered with opening gaps and strong closes that moved above June highs. This brings markets closer to breaching all-time highs. It's interesting that the selling pressure on U.S. action is Iran was less than the buying pressure triggered by the "ceasefire", so you can see markets 'want' to move higher more than they want to succumb to selling pressure. The S&P has reached a point where it's now challenging the 'bull trap' from February. There are still 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to work off, but look for an additional kick-on breakout.

When markets get narrow and tight then the next move will be a big one. Unfortunately, after the weekend action in the Middle East that next move is looking like it will be lower. The problem with the U.S. bombing of Iran is that finding the positives is hard given the ineptitude of current leadership. Bitcoin was the first to show its hand as the trade range morphed into a breakdown. The U.S. is packed with under qualified people in power with no oversight, and there is only so much head-in-the-sand action you can take before it begins to tickle you in the ass. The difficulty for Elon-bro loving Bitcoin is we have an undercut of the June swing low on net bearish technicals. Back in April, the selling generated a buying opportunity, but no such opportunity exists here - at least - not yet. If you are a stick-in-the-mud bull, then the 200-day MA is a possible buying opportunity.

A self-fulfilling policy? Blog traffic falls to its lowest in a while, well off the 1,200 of a few month back, and the 30,000+ of a few years ago. Markets stepped back once more, but not in any capacity to suggest fear is rising, but more a general complacency as to where the markets will go next. I would view this as bullish in the long term.

When fear rises, blog traffic climbs, but when traders get complacent, readership falls. The good news is that markets have lots of workable support. Starting with the Russell 2000 ($IWM), markets eased back to its 20-day MA on relatively modest volume (although technical distribution). There was a 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume to add to the 'sell' trigger in the MA

With the tension of tariffs easing a little, markets now face a new challenge with Israel-Iran hostilities. But even with the retest, we still have key markets participating in bullish advances from April lows, and these tensions don't change this. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) dropped back to test combined March and May swing highs. This test was combined wth 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, but stochatics remain in overbought and therefore, bullish, conditions.