For current post, see previous post. The only asset to make a sizable move was Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) as it lost near 2% to fall deeper back into its trading range. While it's in a trading range it's in no-mans land, which means gains and losses don't carry much significance until trading range support and resistance is breached.

Rallies remain intact, but there is potential for some follow further follow through lower today. It would take quite a bit of selling to even suggest something bigger was in the works, so for now, track action at 20-day and/or 50-day MAs, before looking at challenges at breakout support. The Russell 2000 (I$WM) flagged a 1% loss, but it still hasn't made its way back to its 20-day MA. There is a MACD 'sell' in play, but the relative performance of this index has shifted sideways from summer into fall, so no real shift one way or the other in Small Caps favor.

It was looking good for indices to close the week at new all time highs, but sellers had a sting in their tail and markets are looking a little vulnerable to some follow through selling lower. What traders need to watch for is a gap down tomorrow. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) registered an accumulation day as On-Balance-Volume pushed itself to a new high, but the gravestone doji is not something you want to see in an overbought market state. Technically, there is still a MACD trigger 'sell' to overcome, although it's a weak signal because it occurred above the zero line.

After closing the breakdown gap, indices have retained pressure on the gap and refused to swing lower, as would be typical in such tests. So while we haven't seen much net change over the past few days, expectations would be for the next move to be higher. Backing that has been an uptick in buying volume. For the Russell 2000 ($IWM), we have a return to an On-Balance-Volume 'buy' signal ,although the MACD trigger is stuck on a 'sell'. Other indicators are positive and the index is holding 20-day MA support.

Last week saw gap downs that took some of the indices to their moving average. Since then, indices have been rallying back to their breakdown gaps, with today marking the end of this process. Where markets go from here is up for debate, but either resistance created by the gap down kicks in, or the gap is negated and markets take this as an opportunity to kick on higher. It's potentially a swing trade, as going sideways is not the usual reaction to this. We need to watch the relative relationship of the indices to their 200-day MAs; at the moment the S&P and Nasdaq are inside the 15% zone, and the Russell 2000 in the 10% zone of historic price extremes (i.e. indices are further above their 200-day MAs than 85-90% of price action dating back to the inception of the indices); if these get into the 5% zone, then sell or take profits. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) finished with a small black candlestick - which is typically bearish. Adding to this are 'sell' triggers i...

The chart that caught my attention this week was the comparison between copper prices and semiconductors. Semiconductors have been on a tear of late, with the weekly chart showing two weeks of solid gains delivering a breakout, and bullish net technicals.

Trump defenders - or Trump himself - will not survive history, but markets gave their opinion, and today was not good for bulls or Trump. What's interesting, is that it's not unfair to say the majority of market influencers lean right, but the lack of a favorable reaction to the rate cut would suggest disquiet, and run contrary to the bullishness markets have demonstrated for most of the summer. But we also have to accept that markets are apolitical, and you can't judge your investment decisions through the lense of being left or right. Small Caps had the worst of today's action. While the headlines will show a net gain, they won't show the nasty "gravestone" doji on higher volume. We have a 'sell' signal in the MACD that runs contrary to the 'buy' in On-Balance-Volume. If we see a gain into today's gravestone spike we will have a good chance of a negation in its bearish implication, but a loss tomorrow will spell trouble.