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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Markets Edge Higher Without Conviction

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Not a headline to drive clicks, but this is the reality of the market. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed with a narrow range doji just below its 200-day MA. The indecision suggests the 200-day MA will act as resistance, but the index is playing off a breakout.
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Semiconductor And Russell 2000 ($IWM) Index Breakout On Weekly Timeframe

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We are starting to see the strength triggered by Trumps tariff reversal feed into weekly timeframes and improve the long term forecasts for markets. Both the Semiconductor Index and Russell 2000 ($IWM) have cleared declining channel resistance on fresh breakouts as both the S&P and Nasdaq continue to shape V-reversal on weekly timeframes. I like the action in Semiconductor Index. It was looking very indecisive during the second half of 2024, and when it broke south it looked like bears were to have their day. Instead, buyers stepped into to defend the 200-week MA and the index hasn't looked back since. Friday's close above the downward channel should help the index challenge all-time highs before 2025 is out.
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Semiconductor Index Breakout Holds

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Indices are still holding to their (pending) breakout, although the Semiconductor Index is playing the primary lead as it keeps its head above water on net bullish technicals.
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Bulls Make Their Move On Nasdaq Mini-Breakout

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After weeks of back-and-forth it looks like bulls are about to kick on off the back of a solid day of buying. The Nasdaq had the best of the action as it edged above its handle, leaving it in a zone to go challenge 20,000. The MACD is holding to a 'sell' signal, but is close to a new 'buy' signal and a return to net bullish technicals. This is looking very positive for the index, and only the lack of accumulation volume is a (mild) negative.
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Bulls Defend Weakness Triggered By 'Black' Candlesticks

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The reversal following Thursday's strong open shows bulls aren't willing to take profits yet. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) holds onto 20-day MA support with a new 'sell' signal in On-Balance-Volume to build on the earlier 'sell' signal with the MACD. The S&P finished with a bullish cross in the 200-day MA, by the 20-day MA as Friday's options expiration inspired volume closed with a doji. Technicals show a 'sell' trigger in the MACD as the weakness in relative performance to the Nasdaq slows. The Nasdaq also finished with a doji that successfully defended last week's early week gap higher. As with peer indices, we have seen the degredation of net bullish technical strength with a 'sell' in the MACD. The Dow Industrial Average has 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume as the index itself trades just below its 200-day MA. Monday offers an opportunity to push into the space towards all-time highs. ...
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Strong Open Fades Into The Close

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I don't like when markets gap higher, lose momentum, but hold a higher close; this leaves them vulnerable to more selling the next day - particularly if such action occurs at the end of a rally (in an overbought state). We don't have this as markets have been range bound for a couple of weeks, even if overbought on intermediate stochatstics, but we need to be watchful. The S&P has been lingering near its 200-day MA as the 20-day MA fast approaches. There is a 'sell' trigger in the MACD, but other technicals are positive, including a particularly strong volume trend. While I would be bearish under such scenarios, this index is still in a bullish setup.
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Gap Reversal But Not Oversold

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Trump's machinations cast a shadow on the market, but today's gap rally would have marked a very bullish reversal *if* this reversal occurred from an oversold market state, but this is not the case here. However, it's still a positive response to the various moving average tests. The bounce in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) was launched from the 20-day MA on higher volume accumulation. Technicals are net positive, but overall trading volume remains down on the selling that came before. The index is also sharply underperforming relative to the Nasdaq. However, I'm still liking for a move above $210.
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