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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
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Indices Accelerate Gains

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Base development continued across the board as all lead indices posted gains. The biggest gain came with the Nasdaq as it moved ever closer to its last swing high in September. Technicals for this index are all bullish, with the index making relative gain inroads versus Small Caps. 
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Russell 2000 Closes Week At New Swing High

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Another day when Small Caps maintained their run of good form by closing above the August swing high, but buying volume was down on Thursdays. Technicals remain net bullish and have been since before the mini breakout in October. The only downside was the 'black' candlestick - a higher open but lower close; a close above prior day's close - 'black' candlesticks at a swing high typically mark reversals, so it will be important for buyers on Monday to make a close above the high of this candlestick to negate its potentially bearish implications. 
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Russell 2000 Continues To Perform Well

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Yesterday's selling was a flash in the pan quickly undone by today's trading. The Russell 2000 sharply advanced, taking out the August swing high with technicals all firmly in the green. The only negative was the lower volume, but this is a marked advance after the successful test of the 200-day MA.
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Markets Shrug Off Trump's Covid-19 Diagnosis

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The Russell 2000 had shown the most promise into last week's close and followed that with a move past the most recent swing high - albeit on light volume. In doing so, it returned above its 50-day MA and brings into play the August high as the next challenge. Technicals are all net bullish, including relative performance. This is perhaps the best indication we have for a trade worthy rally as it looks to return above the all-time highs of 2018. 
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Sellers Control Friday's Action - But Monday Will Be The Real Test

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All indices suffered selling on Friday, although selling volume was light, but given the Trump announcement after the Friday close it's hard to see anything but selling on Monday. The context to the selling will be a bounce that has struggled to reach the highs of August. Traders who were waiting for a retest of August highs before selling may find themselves doing this sooner. The lead in candlesticks to Monday will not help the mood. The Nasdaq looks to have finished with a bearish 'evening' start reversal. The 'buy' signal in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX are still intact, but I doubt all will survive by Monday's close. The 50-day MA is also support (for now). Stochatics are firmly on the bearish side of the divide (anything below 50 is bear market land). The index has also returned to a period of underpeformance relative to the Russell 2000. 
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Markets attempt to rally but fall short by the close

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It was looking good for the indices in early m the day, but by the close indices weren't able to hold on to their gains. However, all indices finished in positive territory and any (small) upside tomorrow would likely be sufficient to maintain momentum. The Nasdaq closed today with a 'buy' trigger in the MACD and ADX, along with a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume.The Nasdaq is outperforming the Russell 2000 and while it has enjoyed just over a week's worth of gains it has so far resisted the initial move to the measured target. 
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Bounce stalls despite morning gaps

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Friday's rally offered a promising open with a gap higher, but there was no follow through on these gains.  In the case of the Nasdaq, there was a close above the 50-day which also picked up the 20-day MA but if the gap is to register as a true 'breakout gap' it cannot close. There was  a 'buy' trigger in OBV to go with today's gain. The index is still outperforming Small Caps as it looks to build on its leadership role as the primary home for funds. 
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