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Markets Remain Near and Above, Yesterday's Highs

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Tech indices finished strong after they overcame the opening half hour of selling. The Fed statement was greeted favorably , although market breadth is not looking pretty. The Nasdaq still has a distance to travel to make back all of its losses, but has done well to hold up against Semiconductor weakness.

Second Day of Gains

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Another round of buying swept through Large Cap indices, but other indices didn't enjoy the same level of interest. The S&P had the best of it. Since the middle of July it has enjoyed a strong advance relative to Small Caps and Technology indices, but it may be time for it to revert to mean. Technicals are a little scrappy, but are holding to the bearish side, but one more day of gains could swing it back in bulls favour.

Relief Rally?

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Big gains and a strong reversal in the Russell 2000 puts a potential bottom in play.  The Russell 2000 started the day below the 200-day MA, but then rallied to claim a spike low and a close above this key moving average. Small Caps are a key driver in trend cycles. The 'bull trap' from June is still dominant. and a push above 1,280 looks a tall order. but reversing the breakdown of the rising trendline at 1,240 is a different proposition. If it fails at this, then a swift return below the 200-day MA, and then some, opens up. And the long awaited intermediate term decline begins.

Fifth Day of Selling

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Sellers in the S&P made it five days of downside in a row. On this last day it closed near the day's lows, but also on its 200-day MA. If there was reason for a bounce, then tomorrow could be the day.  Technicals are all net negative.

Broad Selling

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There was no doubt as to the nature of Friday's action. A weak, end-of-week close adds to the negative tone, suggesting the damage is more long term. However, not all indices are in true bearish mode. The S&P is stuck inside its range, and won't be challenging range lows until 2,045 comes into play. The 200-day MA at 2,063 is an area to look for buyers, although the last test of this key moving average was in early July, which is a little too soon for a new test to hold again. Technicals are mixed, which fits with what is trading range action. Bears may win in the long term, but bulls may get some joy at the 200-day MA for a short term bounce play.

Selling Continues

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Bears keep the pressure the on with another around of selling. Markets remain range bound, particularly after July's sell off and recovery, which confirmed market trading ranges. The S&P finished at its 50-day MA on lighter volume selling. Beyond the 50-day MA next comes the 20-day MA, but neither MA has played as support in recent months.

'Bull Trap' in Nasdaq

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There was some spill over from yesterday's after hours disappointment in Apple, but after a weak open, bulls were able to mount some challenge by close of business. However, today's close was still below that of yesterday and registered as distribution. Hardest hit was the Semiconductor Index. It experienced a gap down, shedding 2.5%, as it continues to trend lower. Given the extent of the decline it's hard to see how the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 can continue to trade near yearly highs.

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