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Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Keep The Pressure On

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Buyers were again able to recover the intraday loss to finish higher. The Nasdaq enjoyed the best of the day's action, breaking above its 200-day MA on higher volume accumulation. Strength in the Nasdaq was helped by the continual improvement in market breadth; this time the Nasdaq Summation Index completed a net bullish turn in technicals. The semiconductor index climbed above its 50-day MA, lending additional support to the Nasdaq rally. And the rally in the Nasdaq 100. It too gained on higher volume accumulation. The Russell 2000 is preparing a fresh challenge on its 200-day MA. Today's intraday low came close to testing its 50-day MA, but the strong finish should see a test of the 200-day MA Friday. Thursday's strong finish is good news for bulls looking for more of the same. We have seen two consecutive intraday pullbacks, but buyers have been able to take the indices back to the day's highs; one of these days there will be no pullback - j

Daily Market Commentary: Yesterday's Gains Held

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Early losses were quickly recovered and markets were able to finish near yesterday's close. Yesterday's breakout gaps were tested, but not closed - although many indices started the day with a gap down; the pessimistic might view this scenario as a possible bearish island reversal.  But until the breakout gaps close the current scenario remains bullish and indices should push higher in the days ahead. The S&P is nicely placed with a Golden Cross between the 200-day and 50-day MA just a few days away. The Nasdaq is still pegged by the 200-day MA. Volume climbed to register a distribution day (although volume was no much higher than yesterdays). Bulls need to step it up here as shorts are better positioned to take advantage. Coming to the bulls defense is the breakout in the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA. Technicals net bullish in this important breadth indicator. Small Caps did close its breakout gap, although rallied by end-of-day. It'

Daily Market Commentary: Breakouts?

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Markets are getting back into the swing of things; a bright start saw weak resistance taken out by solid breakout gaps. Volume was respectable enough and technicals for many indices are now net bullish. Over the course of Christmas week the S&P saw a Golden Cross between the 20-d and 50-d MAs. Resistance at 1,260 has turned into support, leaving the next challenge the October reaction high at 1,292. The Nasdaq gap took the index to the 200-day MA, but it hasn't quite broken through. The Russell 2000 is similarly positioned below its 200-day MA. A late morning sell off took the index back to the open price, but didn't violate the breakout gap. The Dow enjoyed a 'Golden Cross' between 200-day and 50-day MAs and a resistance breakout. There was also a break of the October reaction high. All of which is good news for other indices. Santa doesn't look to have left the building just yet. For the week ahead it will be important today's breakou

Weekly Market Commentary: Has Santa Left The Building?

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The arrival of the New Year brings in new challenges after a typical low volume holiday week. The broader picture remains unchanged from my last update; indices trading between support/resistance of rising channels (bear flags?). The Russell 2000 will start the New Year looking to challenge 760 resistance. It made a brief run on resistance during the week, but holiday volume trading was never going to be enough to break it. The fight starts this coming week. The Dow is pegged against broader declining resistance (within which the rising channel resides). If bears have an edge they will show themselves in the Dow. The Nasdaq has a little more room to work with - if bears do turn up the heat this week it will take a significant sell off to break support (but the flip side is also true). The S&P is similarly positioned; closer to the Nasdaq scenario than that of the Dow. Big support at 1,209. The weekly charts aren't offering much in the way of probable moves

Daily Market Commentary: Tech Suffer But Small Caps Nicely Positioned For Thursday

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A mixed day for markets.   Oracles' weak earnings split indices with the tech heavy Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 suffering, while Large and Small Cap indices were able to retain (and add to) yesterday's gains. The S&P was able to manage a small gain with a modest improvement in technicals; enough for 'buy' triggers in On-Balance-Volume, Directional Index and Stochastics. Declining resistance may be tested tomorrow. The best play for bulls on Thursday is probably the Russell 2000. This index is nestled against declining resistance from October; the slightest gain should be enough to drive a breakout. Technicals are comfortably net bullish and relative strength runs in its favor. An opportunity for buyers? The Nasdaq was on a hiding to nothing, but a late surge of buying took the index close to its open price, holding above 20-day and 50-day MA. There is probably too much overhead supply to offer a clean break - but a move above 2,616 would be a good start .

Daily Market Commentary: Higher Volume Accumulation

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Although I missed yesterday's trading action, today's buying created a higher reaction low which keeps the basis of the Santa rally intact. Positive housing data was offered as a reason for the buying but this was the second day in three where markets enjoyed higher volume accumulation (well, the Dow was an exception - but not really!) The Dow is in the best shape of the indices. Today's buying took it from below 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs to above all three. A close above 12,250 will be enough to make new closing high for the October rally. The S&P hasn't quite enjoyed the same degree of buying as the Dow. While it regained the 20-day and 50-day MAs, it hasn't yet challenged its 200-day MA. Declining resistance connecting October, November and December highs hasn't yet been breached. And just above declining resistance is converged 1,260 and 200-day MA resistance. The Nasdaq has been consistently underperforming the S&P since the middle

Weekly Market Commentary: Bad - Could Have Been Worse

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Last week's action was a bit of a struggle on the daily frame, but taking it back to a weekly view hasn't changed a whole lot. In fact, next week could push lower without changing the picture a whole lot. The Russell 2000 tried again to break above 760, but ultimately it finished the week in the middle of its rising channel. The Dow finished just below 12,000 support, but there is additional support at 11,700 - plus 'bear flag' support. The Nasdaq is struggling a little below congestion between 2,600 and 2,885 established  in the latter part of 2010 and early 2011. The Nasdaq Summation Index finished the week with a 'bull trap' which suggests more downside for the parent Nasdaq to come. In addition, the Nasdaq Summation Index isn't oversold, so the decline could continue for a number of weeks. The NYSE Summation Index has already created and confirmed a 'bull trap' and it too has room to run before it becomes oversold. How

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