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Daily Market Commentary: Fails to Hold Gains

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It was a disappointing end to the day after a promising start. Indices finished near the days' lows, plus, what buying volume there was, was very light.  The S&P continues to play at converged support of declining trendline and 50-day MA. The 'sell' in the on-balance-volume quickly reversed, although technicals are weakening. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq hasn't yet launched a test of its 50-day MA. How will this play with respect to the S&P remains to be seen? Will the S&P lose 50-day MA support as the Nasdaq tests its 50-day? ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Semiconductors didn't even manage to post a gain. A big loss tomorrow could see June support breached. It's looking ugly for the semiconductors, although it may be the first index to truly bottom (and a key one with respect to leading an economic recovery). Semiconductors are pricing expanding trouble in the economy, much more so than the S&P, Nasdaq or Small Caps. ($SOX

Daily Market Commentary: Semis Rout

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Despite Ireland's late attempt to spoil the party it was a reasonably quiet day for the markets - with the exception of the semiconductor index. The S&P could still be considered at converged support of the declining trendline and 50-day MA, despite the couple point close below the 50-day MA. There was an on-balance-volume 'sell' trigger to boot. The Nasdaq struggled, not helped by the lack of immediate support. Nearest support zone is converged declining trendline and 50-day MA down at 2,760; a days selloff away.   Weakness in Nasdaq was heavily influenced by the selling in the semiconductor index.  There was no respite from the selling as the index shed close to 3%, slicing through its 20-day MA straight from the off. The next line of defense is the June reaction low, and if that fails, down to channel support.  The Russell 2000 held the losses from the open, closing with a doji. Like the Nasdaq, it's about a days selling away from support. Aggressive bu

Daily Market Commentary: Sellers Swoop

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Supply created by the April-May bull traps came back to haunt buyers on the back of more eurozone woes. Volume climbed to register a distribution day, although for the size of the day's losses it was not excessive. The S&P marked a second bull trap off 1,343 resistance, falling back to its 50-day MA with former declining resistance coming into play too. A decent opportunity for a long side play tomorrow. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq was pegged by upper resistance from the April-May bull trap. Monday's selling dropped the Nasdaq below 2,836, but unfortunately it's not lingering near any obvious support; the 50-day MA is one or two day's selling away. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Pressuring tech indices is expanding weakness in semiconductors. The 50-day MA has played as firm resistance and buyers have only the 20-day MA to look too before there is a push down to lower channel support. ($SOX) via StockCharts.com Small Caps never got a chance

Weekly Market Commentary: Bull Traps Under Pressure

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Friday's sell off will have dented bullish confidence on the dailies, but on the weekly time frame the sell off made less of an impact. The bull traps carry less influence, particularly for Tech indices, although they are not fully negated yet. The sour point on the week was the relatively light volume for the buying. The Nasdaq 100 is the strongest of the indices and the one most likely to finish a week with a new mutli-year high. Even if sellers crank up the heat there is still strong support to work with. The Nasdaq is very close to cracking past the 2007 high, but has less support to work with (chiefly channel support). The Percentage of Nasdaq Stock above the 50-day MA swung to a confirmed 'Buy'.  This indicator tends to be more sensitive and more prone to false signals, but for now it's a tick in the bull column. Small Caps are similarly positioned as the Nasdaq. The only difference is the location of the bull trap which is more 'above the par

Daily Market Commentary: Higher Volume Accumulation

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Thursday saw some half decent buying volume, although it was well off a typical accumulation day. Better were the breakout gaps with the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The latter index finished just shy of a new closing high for 2011. The S&P cleared 1,343 which was the marker level for a bearish head-and-shoulder reversal. Shorts who were looking to benefit were caught with their pants down. Next challenge is to negate the May bull trap. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq enjoyed a powerful gap open, and more importantly was able to retain those gains over the course of the day. It too is looking to negate its bull trap. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The sister Nasdaq 100 enjoyed the best of Tech action and has almost made a new closing high for 2011. When it does it will have negated the May bull trap and will have sent a very positive signal to other lead indices. ($NDX) via StockCharts.com The semiconductor index was able to benefit, reversing what had been two days o

Daily Market Commentary: Positive Day

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With the exception of the semiconductor index, it was a good day for indices. Markets continued to hold to the upper range of Friday's gains and there was a modest uptick in volume. The S&P is trading just below a former resistance at 1,343. Those looking for a head-and-shoulder reversal will need sellers to make an appearance tomorrow. However, the second day of narrow trading in a row, with a higher close, leaves the index nicely primed for further gains tomorrow. Like the S&P, the Nasdaq is lurking at resistance (2,836). And like the S&P, there is the potential for a head-and-shoulder reversal - a sell off would go towards forming the right-hand-shoulder of the pattern. I expect shorts will try and get busy tomorrow. Shorts do have one index working in their favour, and that is the semiconductor index. The past two days of selling saw the index repelled from its 50-day MA. There was also a 'sell' in the CCI and it finished today below its 200-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: Holds Friday's Gains

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Friday was the real surprise with well defined resistance (across indices) failing to live up to its name. Monday was about retaining those gains, many indices doing so on light volume in the upper part of Friday's range. The S&P was a case in point as technicals moved net bullish. The S&P is well positioned for further gains. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq was able to add another few points, bringing the winning sequence to six days. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com As the Nasdaq Bullish Percents turned net bullish, even though today's gain was small. All three key Nasdaq market internals are bullish (Bullish Percents, Summation Index, Percentage of Stocks above 50-day MA). Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index (EOD) ($BPCOMPQ) via StockCharts.com Small Caps also posted a small gain, building on Friday's resistance breakout. Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) via StockCharts.com With sectorbreadth pushing net S&P bullishness to 83% , the

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