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Weekly Stock Commentary: Bear rally

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One week gains of 9-11% for the indices were of significant relief, but gains of this variety are typically retraced as part of a retest; a retest which could map out for a couple of weeks. It wasn't all fun and games as many support technicals for the indices were either flat or closed lower for the week (unusual). The weak technical picture can be seen in the Russell 2000 as an example: Market breadth indicators also haven't indicated a bottom; the summation indices have the most room to fall - the Nasdaq is given as an example: But also breadth indicators like the percentage of stocks above the 50-day MA are not yet oversold. The week's gains were good, but a bottom is not a slam dunk. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stock Market Breakfast: Is there more left in the tank?

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After two days of strong gains out of three is there a chance of a fourth? Richard Lehman has the Dow in a mid-level channel, which while ultimately unsustainable in the short term will provide a big boost on the intermediate time frame. But given it's not near resistance there may yet be another 100 points of upside before things get sunhot. In the same breath, there may be 25 points up for grabs for the Nasdaq. Even Yong Pan's daily charts suggest there may be room to squeeze another up day. Diamonds (DIA) also showing potential for a push to $74 Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stock Market Commentary: MACD buys all around

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Another big gain on higher volume registered an accumulation day for tech averages. The Nasdaq closed over the 20-day MA and has the 50-day MA in range. The Nasdaq 100 just closed shy of its 50-day MA. Again, the semiconductors contributed having already cleared their 50-day MA. Note, all supporting technicals are net positive; next up is the consolidation triangle. And as the title suggests, MACDs of the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, Dow, S&P and Russell 2000 are all on 'buy' signals. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Market Sentiment: Bottom?

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The Nasdaq may be overbought in the short term but on the intermediate time frame things a looking a lot better. It's not all roses, I would like to see the Summation Index weaken a little more to firm up a sentiment bottom but the Bullish Percents made a picture perfect touch off the bullish divergence and there were bullish 'buy' triggers in it and the Percentage of Stocks above 50 and 200-day MAs. The S&P is a little closer to a Summation Bottom but did enjoy a bounce off the bullish divergences in the S&P bullish percents. It's possible the S&P will find a bottom before the Nasdaq does. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls pause for breath

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No surprise to see bulls take a break after yesterday's hard work. 20-day MAs are slowly coming into range as potential overhead supply (the Nasdaq 100 is already there). In the Nasdaq the MACD looks to be working support off its bullish divergence. The Dow completed a MACD trigger 'buy' but volume was well off of yesterday's. The semiconductors are playing their leadership role with a price break of both 20-day and 50-day MAs Can bulls press their advantage? Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls Appear from the Woodwork

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Bulls emerged from their shells leaving an interesting situation in their wake. At its simplest, Mondays' lows for the indices will need to be defended. However, it's not all so simple. The rally in the Nasdaq was strong enough to create a bear trap. This could set up a strong move higher - perhaps to 1,600. The Nasdaq 100 did the decent thing and bounced off support of November lows Large caps have more work to do and it's hard not to see a retest of Monday's lows on the cards. Lots of work to do. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls are kept waiting

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Another day another decline. Volume remained remarkably complacent which doesn't bode well for capitulation watchers. Technically, the Nasdaq MACD has approached its bullish divergence but this has meant little in other indices so it is questionable whether it can help support a bounce. The drop in volume may be helpful for the Dow; it could signal sellers exhaustion but it's not a convincing argument. Breadth indicators suggest some more downside is needed before we bounce If there is a glimmer of light it's that the next rally will be a big one - the problem is it probably won't stick. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

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