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Markets Struggle to Rally; What Next?

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It has been a tricky last few days. The bounce in the Russell 2000 off the 20-day MA and key support of 1,705 has struggled to follow through on what should have been a strong support test.  Technicals are a bit of a mixed bag with 'sell' triggers in +DI/-DI and MACD. Today's 'doji/hammer' is perhaps the last chance saloon to see something happen here; a lower close Thursday will likely see a break of 1,705.

Semiconductor and Tech Indices Bounce Off Support

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Bulls stuck around for another day as triangle support held in the Semiconductor Index along with the Nasdaq. The Semiconductor Index returned above the 20-day MA but it came with MACD trigger 'sell'. Relative strength vs Tech Indices flatlined from July but is attempting a turn higher, albeit quite erratically. 

Nasdaq, Semiconductors and Russell 2000 Hold Support Tests

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Thursday's selling had left indices vulnerable to further losses and support breaks, not to mention a weekend of angst but indices held on - ready for a fresh start next week. The Semiconductor Index experienced the greatest loss Friday but the consolidation triangle is approaching its apex and if there is to a break (upside or down) then it's going to have to happen soon or the pattern will trade out flat. Friday did see a successful support test and a buying/short covering opportunity.

Decision Time for Nasdaq

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The Nasdaq experienced its second day of losses to bring it back down to 2018 channel support. This looks to be a critical time for the index given the convergence with the 20-day MA. There was a MACD trigger 'sell' and -DI/+DI 'sell' too to compound today's selling. On-Balance-Volume will turn negative tomorrow if there is another down day. From a trade perspective, buying support would look to be the favoured option but given this has come from a failed upside break from the wedge (inside the larger channel) the likelihood for a break lower and a move to test the 200-day MA would perhaps be favoured. Where longs will edge it is if there is a gap lower but a subsequent move back inside the channel.

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