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Profit Taking

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While volume climbed to rank as distribution there wasn't a significant relative loss for markets.  However, the selling perhaps marks an indication that the summer lull is a maximum for the Brexit recovery. Today's selling started yesterday and continued through the day. The S&P shows this with the Inverse Hammer followed by today's red candlestick combo. The support line from the Jobs Data breakout hasn't been breached and this may be enough to keep longs in their positions. However, a weak open tomorrow could open the flood gates, and a loss of 2,160 may see others pile in.

Guest Post: What's Next for GBP/USD and USD/JPY?

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GBP/USD A better day for sterling versus the dollar, as cable inched up to the $1.30 handle after the UK’s official statistics office said inflation crept up to 0.6% in July from 0.5% in June. This stemmed losses that had seen cable drop below $1.29 on Monday. Sterling was flat versus the euro as the pound was slightly higher against its major peers, recording its first session gain in two weeks. But sentiment is still pretty bearish. Net shorts at the CFTC are at the highest in years and JPMorgan says cable should slip to $1.25. More data out this week will offer fresh impetus – retail sales, average earnings and employment figures on the way. USD/JPY Sentiment towards the greenback is also looking decidedly bearish. USD/JPY plunged below the 100 mark but quickly recovered after William Dudley, the New York Fed president, said the FOMC could still vote to hike interest rates in September. The dollar was still down almost 1% against the yen as economic reports disappointed

Little To Add

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Not much to say after Friday's action. Instead, I will take a look at some of the longer term charts. Of these, bears look to have an edge. The relationship between consumer discretionary and staples stocks has been in a slow decline, which in the past has led to big sell offs, but the market has refused to buckle and is trading in a manner much like it did in 2006. If the latter pattern was to repeat it could be another year before sellers regain control.

Dow Edges A Closing Breakout

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Holiday trading action continues with little on offer. The Dow followed action of its peers by edging higher (on a closing basis) of July highs. Technicals haven't quite confirmed with both MACD and OBV still in the red.

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