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Late Recovery Comforts Bulls

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Not sure what to make of today. The recovery didn't look like one based on merit and will be vulnerable to early morning weakness. The Russell 2000 went from trading range support to resistance as it finished with a bullish engulfing pattern. The strength of the pattern is weakened by the lack of oversold conditions. However, price action will always be dominant. A poor start will increase the probability for a retest of today's low.

Broad Selling

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Bears paid an early visit to Santa with a broad selling. The relative loss was minor, although volume climbed to register confirmed distribution. The Nasdaq delivered on the 'bear flag' breakdown, which will give shorts something to work with.  The index finished on its 20-day MA. but this hasn't played as support in recent months.

Honors Even - Indices Little Changed

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Not a whole lot to add to Friday's action. The only index to make ground was the Russell 2000: it's working toward a challenge of the November peak as part of a double bottom at 1,155.

Recovering from a Cold.

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Getting back up to speed after a head cold. Not a whole lot to report, despite the roller coaster ride in European markets yesterday. The S&P is primed to push to new highs, yesterday's doji left it pressuring resistance.

So Much For The Measured Pullback

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Yesterday had looked like markets were about to kickstart a move lower, but today put paid to that. Today has the appearance of panic buying, with traders not wanting to be left out of any opportunity to 'buy the dip'. The Dow went as far as to finish with a new closing high.

Confirmed Distribution

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It has been a while, but markets had their first day of distribution in weeks. The selling didn't clock up big percentage losses, although the Russell 2000 suffered the worst of the selling. There was still a case of post-holiday trading volume, but many indices are looking at 'bearish evening star' set ups. The Russell 2000 is just a shade above its 200-day MA, and probably a day away from the first Fib retracement.

Happy Thanksgiving!

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It's unlikely we will be seeing much action over the next few days. I have memories of Thanksgiving Friday been good for bulls, but with holiday trading anything can happen. The index most likely to enjoy a good holiday break is the Russell 2000.

Semiconductors Continue to Gain

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Again, it was left to Semiconductors to do the leg work for the day as it added nearly 1%. The question is whether strength in this index will contribute to further gains for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.  The 'bull trap' in the Semiconductor index is now negated.

Overreaching Enthusiasm?

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Bullish monetary policy rumblings from China and Europe had kick started a bright opening for markets, but the feel good factor gradually wore off as the day lengthened, and in the end, the day felt oddly bearish. The S&P closed with a bearish inverse hammer, which could turn into a bearish shooting star if there is a gap down on Monday. Volume climbed to register technical accumulation, but this could mark significant overhead supply if sellers come back tomorrow. I have widened the Fib levels for the next decline. Note, pending MACD trigger 'sell,' although other technicals are in good shape.

Bulls Pressure Highs, Big Recovery in Small Caps

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Another good day sent indices back to highs, but it was the Russell 2000 that probably came out best.  Yesterday's losses in Small Caps were consumed by a bullish engulfing pattern. The index defended its 20-day MA, although stochastics weren't oversold,which would have strengthened the engulfing pattern.

Early Losses Couldn't Kill Yesterday's Gains

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It was a decent, yet unspectacular day for the indices. Early losses were clawed back by the close, but there was no push higher. The S&P is nicely positioned to gain.  The inside day at oversold conditions is typically bearish, but I'm not sure today was.

Semiconductors Breakout, While S&P Makes Its Move.

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A solid day for Semiconductors saw a solid breakout from the recent handle (without a violation of the measuring gap), which even managed to mount a challenge on the September 'bull trap'. It still has a bit of work to do to get to new highs, but bulls have shown their hand, and now it's up to others to follow suit. This - to me - looks good for a push to 700s, but even a move back to 600 would offer the possibility of a head-and-shoulder bounce: lots of room for bulls to work with here.

Russell 2000 Experiences Increased Selling Pressure

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In real terms, today's selling in the Russell 2000 was relatively light, but it was the only business in town. The selling brought the index back to handle support, but it hasn't violated the gap, and there is a 50-day MA which 'golden crossed' with the 200-day MA to provide support.

Minor Gains Continue as Semiconductors Shape Handle

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While I'm late with this weekend's update there was very little to add from Thursday. Best of the action remains in the Semiconductors, which is shaping a solid handle in preparation for a possible break higher (ignore the 'Death Cross' between 20-d and 50-d MAs - this is now a 'Golden Cross').

Wide(r) Range Day Breaks the Monotony

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There wasn't a whole lot going on today. The Russell 2000 closed with a potential 'bull trap' that could evolve into something bigger, perhaps the only index offering shorts anything as of today's close.

Russell 2000 Adds to Breakout

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Wednesday proved to be a relatively quiet day. Large Caps managed to keep themselves out of the limelight with a mid-morning recovery after an opening sell off. Best of the action belonged to the Russell 2000. It was able to put some distance on a tight handle consolidation, which sets it up for a move to challenge resistance at 1,208.

Swing Trade Tuesday's Narrow Range

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All indices traded themselves into very narrow ranges - offering the potential for a big move once today's high/low are breached. It's the kind of market where everyone is expecting the rally to collapse, but no one wants to make the first move. Which is why this rally will probably keep moving higher; even if all buyers are in, shorts will have to cover if there is another surge - which will bring more buyers in. One thing which is happening is the reduction in buying volume. The S&P is unchanged.

Further Minor Gains Extend Rallies

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There wasn't much to today or Friday, but bulls kept the pressure on shorts in existing positions. The Russell 2000 had the best of the (modest) action, edging a breakout from the narrow, 6-day handle. A move to upper resistance remains favoured; watch for a 'bull trap' on an undercut of breakout support.

Dow Pushes Well Past Breakout Support

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Another day of gains for markets, but it was the Dow which is best positioned to benefit. The Dow is out of range of the easy short with an undercut of breakout support: one day of loss might not be enough to see this level tested, given net bullish technicals and a MACD at a new high.

Some Bullish Follow Through To Yesterday's Breakout Defense

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The shorting opportunity presented on yesterday's intraday close didn't last the morning. The S&P opened above 2,009 support and this level didn't get a look in through the day. I have widened the Fib levels, but there is a chance it will push higher tomorrow.

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