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Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductor Gains Accelerate

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It was more of the same from the Semiconductor index: a solid gain which took the index ever closer to 652 resistance. All of which is helping the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 maintain their push to all-time highs. Technicals for the Semiconductor Index are net bullish.  Weakness will offer itself as a buying opportunity, particularly at the breakout line and/or 50-day MA. Risk can be measured from the 38.2% fib retracement at $616.25.

Daily Market Commentary: Moving Averages Break

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A further acceleration in the rally took indices past key moving averages and into a space with limited overhead resistance. One of the indices hardest hit by the sell off was the semiconductor index. While it hasn't challenged July highs it did close above the neckline and 50-day MA. Technicals also finished today net bullish.

Daily Market Commentary: Nasdaq and Dow Breakout

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Well, half of what I suggested might happen, happened. The Nasdaq effectively limped a breakout, but the Dow had a far more enthused push higher. If there was a red flag for either of the breakouts it was the lack of volume, but given the extent of the moves there is room for some give back while maintaining the breakout. The Dow closed bang on its 50-day MA, which is another resistance level, but the breakout is of greater significance than resistance at its 50-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: Tetchy Friday

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Ukrainian fears (mis-information) knocked Friday's morning rally before markets staged a recovery by the close. Sellers are likely to remain trigger happy but bulls have been willing to snap up these sell offs. Volume climbed to register distribution in non-Tech indices, but the August bounce from swing lows remain intact. The S&P closed between the 20-day and 50-day MAs, but with a bullish cross in stochastics and a new MACD trigger 'buy'.

Daily Market Commentary: Rally Continues

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Another day to leave excluded bulls wishing they had bought last week. Tomorrow will offer opportunities for bears to take advantage, but not all indices are in the same shape. The S&P is one such index which will find itself under the influence of bears on Friday. Today's rally took the index up to its 20-day MA, which just 'Death Crossed' below the 50-day MA. Near term momentum is with bulls, but if there is going to be a change then tomorrow is a good chance for shorts to show their hand.

Daily Market Commentary: Good Day For Bulls

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Today's buying offset the prior two days of indecision in the markets. The Nasdaq had perhaps the best of the action, rallying past the 20-day MA in a move towards 4,485. Technicals are on the verge of a net bullish switch with an upcoming MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'buy'.

Daily Market Commentary: Minor Losses

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The indecisive finish for the S&P and Nasdaq worked in bulls favor as it didn't bring a follow through to yesterday's selling. The Nasdaq held on to 50-day MA support. Swing traders could look to play a break of today's intraday range.

Daily Market Commentary: Disappointing Afternoon Fade

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Yesterday was a bit of reverse from my expectations. Had I seen a gap down with a 2-hour sell off, followed by a steady recovery to the (same) closing price, then I would have been much happier.  As it stands, there is a risk the selling could drift into today and keep buyers away until markets get closer to last Thursday's lows. Having said that, it does look like Thursday's lows will mark a strong support level. The profit taking which took markets down did knock breadth metrics down near, but not quite at, oversold levels. The Nasdaq 100 perhaps offers the most natural support as marked by the rising channel.  The 20-day MA is providing some supply, and if the index was to reverse and undercut the channel then this 20-day MA will become a shorting zone. The nearby presence of the 50-day MA complicates this a little as it has held as support (in conjunction with channel support).

Daily Market Commentary: Small Cap Channel Breakout

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Bulls will not doubt have danced a little jig of joy on Friday's close, but as Thursday's selling ultimately proved, the lack of volume will place a big asterisk next to it.  That's not to say there aren't areas of importance to watch. The Nasdaq has set up a defense line which will offer bulls a place for stops: a loss of 4,320 (on a close basis) would kill the nascent swing low in development. Stochastics haven't converged at oversold levels, so there may yet be a small bounce back to the 20-day MA before another push lower. Even so, buyers probably have more to gain from here forwards.

Daily Market Commentary: Tug of War Continues

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It has been a struggle between bulls and bears for the past week; each day alternating between buyers and sellers. Today belonged to sellers. Volume was lighter than yesterday, marking a lack of conviction on the part of sellers to drive the market lower. The index best positioned to bounce on Friday is the Dow. It finished the day very near the 200-day MA, offering a natural entry point for buyers. The Nasdaq was rebuffed at support-now-resistance and currently has a target of 4,245 and/or the 200-day MA.  Stops/Risk measured on a close above 4,380. The Russell 2000 was rebuffed from newly drawn channel resistance. Lower prices with a May low retest looks probable. Finally, the Nasdaq 100 is another index trading close to channel support and the 50-day MA. It's another good long candidate for Friday. For Friday, look for long opportunities in the Dow and Nasdaq 100. A weak open should look for short opportunities in the Russell 2000 while the downward channel

Daily Market Commentary: No Bearish Follow Through

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There is still a net decline in lead markets, but the crash-and-burn style headlines have yet to crack the resolve of bulls. The Nasdaq 100 found support at its 50-day MA, which itself is just above channel support. As the index is outperforming the others it's the one most attractive for bulls looking at the 'easy play'; stops on a close below channel support.

Daily Market Commentary: Buyers Not Ready Yet

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Monday's rally was brief and didn't trigger any follow through. Sellers pounced, hitting Large Caps hard, but leaving no index unscathed. Volume climbed to register distribution for the S&P, posting a new low for the July/August decline and came close to a potential new closing low. The 1,900 level is looking like the next stop down: watch for an intraday tag as this could be a good day trade on the bounce.

Daily Market Commentary: Sellers Continue to Press

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In previous sell offs, buyers have quickly come to the fore to buy-the-dip. They weren't so encouraged on Friday with buyers struggling to meet the supply created by sellers. Buyers still have a chance to strike with available support, although the amount of risk required to take such a position has widened. The indices closest to support, like the Nasdaq, finished with an opportunity at converged July swing lows and 50-day MA. A loss of the Friday low is the place for stops, although there is a good chance this low could be taken out on (probable) Monday (morning) weakness.

Daily Market Commentary: Bear Blitz

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Whatever tentative bullish plays were available before the start of the day were quickly put to rest by the close of business.  Where I thought the Dow might offer shorts the most reward, it was the Russell 2000 which suffered most. The Dow actually managed to close on a support level - although it probably doesn't look like it.

Daily Market Commentary: Mixed Action

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Bears got the volume, but not the action to suggest they succeeded in breaking bulls morale. The S&P continued with the channel breakdown, but finished with an indecisive 'spinning top'. Even if bears were to press tomorrow, the 50-day MA would quickly come into range as support. I suspect we are looking at a trading range, something part of a larger move higher.  However, it remains to be seen where the low of this range lies.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Return

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The day started well (for bulls) with some early follow through upside, but it wasn't long until bears were trying their hand again. The S&P may have registered a channel breakdown. There was a close below channel support, although the day's low did not violate the low from yesterday. There was a marked rise in volume, confirming distribution.

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Stage Afternoon Recovery

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Morning action left the Russell 2000 staring at a new swing low, and the S&P at a channel break. However, buyers returned in the afternoon to return the S&P to support and the Russell 2000 scrambling back to its 200-day MA.  Meanwhile, the Semiconductor index finished with a bullish doji on the 50-day MA. Given bears failure, bulls have an opportunity to press their advantage in the Semiconductor Index and S&P. The 608 low in the Semiconductor Index may see a test and perhaps an intraday violation, but there is a fairly decent long side opportunity available, if the 50-day MA can hold.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Flash Intentions

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Bears made further inroads to the Semiconductor index, and Russell 2000, which delivered knock on results elsewhere.  The Semiconductor index had the worst of the action, slicing through its 50-day MA with a near 2% loss. If bulls wanted value a quick return above the 50-day MA would set up a 'bear trap' and may generate enough juice for a challenge of 650.

Daily Market Commentary: Market Pause

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Other than a slight uptick in volume for the S&P, it was a relatively quiet day. The one index which hinted at a change was the semiconductor index.  It had been trading in a sideways range which had drifted outside of its narrow, rising channel, but yesterday's close positioned it as a break of support. The 50-day MA is nearby to provide support, but with technical weakness expanding there is a strong possibility for a larger move down.

Daily Market Commentary: Watch Expanding Bearish Breadth

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While the S&P and Nasdaq have recovered strongly, supporting breadth for these indices hasn't been so glowing. For example, the Nasdaq is on the verge of a move to a new high, sitting just below the July peak, on a second day of accumulation.

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