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Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Weekly Market Commentary: Double Top in New Highs? Probably Not

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Unusual behavior in New Highs / New Lows.  After what looked to have been a fairly reliable peak in the number of (smoothed) NYSE components at new 52-week highs, now looks set to make an even higher high. Given the last peak was a 10-year high, it's odd to see this challenged so soon. However, it does point to the overall strength of the rally to have so many components making new high - a total contrast to the action in the 2007 top.  The current situation has far more in common with peaks in 2004 and 2010, which marked consolidation points of larger rallies

Daily Market Commentary: Channel Resistance

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Modest losses were not unexpected given the sequence of gains. The S&P made a pitch perfect rebuttal off channel resistance.  Bulls may try and repeat the action of January and February, when the index bounced along the upper resistance line.

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Gain

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After pushing a breakout yesterday, today saw the Russell 2000 build on this momentum.  The advance helped push its relative advance against the Nasdaq, but it will take a number of days before the broader trend in relative strength changes.

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Breakout

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Bulls kept things moving, although in my  sectorbreadth  analysis, the once strong Utility sector took a big hit to fall to (joint) last spot.  The Russell 2000 finally posted its breakout. This didn't really change the relative underperformance of the index to the Nasdaq, but there was a gain against the S&P.  However, it did manage to reverse the brief 'Death Cross'.

Weekly Market Commentary: Rally Expands

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Market Breadth accelerated higher, firming up the swing low and supporting the current leg of the rally. The swing low emerged from relative strength - not from an oversold state - as is typical at major lows. So while the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA has room to run before it becomes overbought, the Nasdaq Bullish Percents and Nasdaq Summation Index will be soon be in overbought territory once more.

Daily Market Commentary: Technology Indices Advance

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Yesterday's selling had put pressure on Technology indices, and today they responded.  Buyers stepped in to take the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 away from breakout support, postponing the possibility for a 'bull trap'.

Daily Market Commentary: Extensive Selling of Small Cap Stocks

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A worrying sell off in Small Cap stocks overshadowed the selling in other indices.  The Russell 2000 experienced over a 2% sell off, cutting below 20-day and 50-day MAs in the process. However, the February and April swing lows likely mark the boundary of a trading range.  This lessens the significance of today's selling, although you still don't want to see it! The selling did result in a bear trigger in the ADX and increased the relative loss against other indices; this has been particularly ugly against the Nasdaq. Despite a trading range in the Russell 2000, the big relative swing against Small Caps is undermining the April rally. Without participation of Small Caps, the broader rally will struggle for long term traction.  What would add to the misery is if the breakouts in the Tech averages would fail (and they are close to it).

Daily Market Commentary: Significant Accumulation

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Technology spent another day in the headlines.  Yesterday there was a breakout in the Nasdaq, now today there was heavier volume buying to back it up. The semiconductor index is the 'news' index to follow.  It's breakout will largely determine how long the rallies in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Technicals are net bullish, another tick in the bullish column for these indices. Even the 'Death Cross' might not last too long.

Daily Market Commentary: Tech Breakout

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While volume was anemic, Tech indices managed to push a breakout.  Technicals returned net bullish while the Nasdaq moved to outperform against the S&P. A 'bull trap' will be created on a close below 3,300.

Weekly Market Commentary: Breadth Swing Low

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While it's questionable the extent the breadth swing low will support for a rally in the parent Nasdaq (given none of the breadth indicators are oversold), it does suggest the current rally is something more than just a relief rally.

Daily Market Commentary: Impasse

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Some small gains, but nothing to suggest a follow through to the past three days of buying. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, but it barely registered as one. The only real point of note was the finish above resistance and converged 20-day and 50-day MAs in the Russell 2000.

Daily Market Commentary: Tech Resistance Failed

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Yesterday's buying managed to bring Tech indices to former rising channel support, pushing them beyond resistance with relative ease.  This was supported by higher volume accumulation. So despite the weak Tech breadth, buying was able to continue. The Nasdaq 100 illustrated this best with the move to challenge the 'bull trap'.

Daily Market Commentary: Nasdaq 100 Net Bearish

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Bulls came to the rescue at support, but there was a general lack of conviction on the part of buyers to build something meaningful. The Nasdaq 100 turned net bearish technically, but the attempt at support has already pulled one indicator back. However, look for it to struggle at 2,825.

Daily Market Commentary: Tech Continues to Sell Off

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Sellers kept the pressure on, with Technology taking the brunt of it. The swing low (and former 'bear trap') from early April was knocked out. This leaves the Nasdaq's 200-day MA as the next target. The Nasdaq 100 also knocked out its swing low, but almost managed to make it to its 200-day MA. Look for other indices to do likewise.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Win

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Yesterday's gains were undone by today's round of selling.  Volume climbed to register a second big distribution day in three as technicals remained under pressure. This selling doesn't look done. The S&P was able to defend its 50-day MA, which is in close proximity to rising channel support. However,  with similar support trashed in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, it's going to be hard for the index to hold this support.

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Buying

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The rebound was decent, but lacked volume conviction. It didn't do enough to reverse the breakdown in the Russell 2000, but it did push the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 into a 50:50 situation. The Russell 2000 came back to the breakdown line, but finished below its 50-day MA. Technicals are close to a net bearish turn.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Pounce

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It was a bad day at the office for bulls, but the selling hasn't totally handed control to the bears.  The swing lows are still defendable positions, although action in the Russell 2000 suggests these won't be defended very hard. The near 4% sell off in the Russell 2000 knocked out the swing low, with a clean slice of the 50-day MA to boot.  There is little to protect until the index gets down to its 200-day MA. What's most problematic is the role of the Russell 2000 as a trend leader, and this trend is clearly favouring bears (for Small Caps).  Look for Tech and Large Caps to follow - eventually.

Weekly Market Commentary: Breadth Recovers, But Still Net Bearish

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The Masters has me distracted, so I will just show two charts: The Nasdaq has had a very good run of form of late, but it hasn't really changed the breadth picture a great deal.  Bulls will look to the new swing low which will be confirmed if the Nasdaq Summation Index crosses above its 5-day EMA, and other breadth indicators hold their 5-day EMA.  Bears will see a dominant bearish trend, particularly in the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA, and suggest the current run is nothing more than a relief rally.

Stock Picks: $THC, $NTES, $ISIS, $EQT, $CNP, $AA, $SWC, $JNJ, $MOV, $EL, $GWRE, $PDCE, $BLOX

A bit of a backlog on the posts, but here we go: Click links for fundamentals on THC, NTES and ISIS , EQT and CNP , AA and SWC , JNJ, MOV and EL , GWRE, PDCE and BLOX . --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . You can read what others are saying about Zignals on Investimonials.com . JOIN ZIGNALS TODAY - IT'S FREE!

Daily Market Commentary: Small Gains

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It was going to be hard to expect a good follow through from yesterday's buying, but today didn't disappoint with markets retaining most of the gains. The S&P even managed to finish with a modest gain. Enough to build on bullish technicals.

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