tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-100197042024-03-18T23:53:36.468+00:00@FallondpicksStock Market Commentary by Dr. Declan Fallon; est. Jan 8th 2005Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comBlogger4354125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-76522180713681320672024-03-18T23:52:00.006+00:002024-03-18T23:52:45.716+00:00Bearish engulfing pattern eats into Friday's Russell 2000 ($IWM) buying<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has been defending its 50-day MA over the early part of 2024, but the last few days have seen a shift in this support with 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. The index is underperforming relative to the Nasdaq, but it has been a bit of a whipsaw scenario since early February. Buyers need to dig in soon because a loss of next support at the 50-day MA spells trouble and opens up for a test of the 200-day MA.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq closed with a bearish 'black' candlestick that failed to challenge the March high. There are 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to work off, but today's finish suggests more downside tomorrow</p>
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<p>The S&P closed iwth a doji that also failed to challenge all-time highs. As with the Nasdaq there are 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to overcome but it did retain breakout support and relative performance is improving. Today wasnt't quite the action I was looking for in the S&P so caution remains advised as the outlook edges bearish.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow we will want to see a more bullish push in the S&P that negates the bearishness of today's action and closes at new highs. This should help other indices challenge their more bearish setups, although it likely won't negate them.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-62734970355420426972024-03-18T00:04:00.004+00:002024-03-18T00:05:41.506+00:00Higher volume buying doesn't negate Russell 2000 'bull trap'<p>Options expiraton will have clouded Friday's volume, but Friday's buying in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) did not do enough to challenge the "bull trap" or the loss of the 20-day MA. The index is having to deal with 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and relative performance against the Nasdaq. The expected result of the 'bull trap' is a move back to - then below - support defining the trading range off which the original breakout emerged. For the the Russell 2000 ($IWM), this means a move back to $188s.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq has just drifted below breakout support and its 20-day MA, enough to count as a "bull trap". If there isn't a return above 16,055 tomorrow it will effectively confirm the "bull trap", but there is still time for the index to get out of this.</p>
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<p>The S&P was the one index not to flag a 'bull trap' and has the potential to lead a recovery off its 20-day MA. If there is a long-play tomorrow it will be in this index.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow, we will want to see a positive open, especially in the S&P. Given the vulnerabilities of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, a gap higher on the open would likely lead to more selling, so a slow-and-steady approach is perhaps preferred. As the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is furthest away from prior breakout resistance, it's the one most likely to see a shorts-attack on a return to this level.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-51295369171265093872024-03-13T22:25:00.002+00:002024-03-14T15:47:08.681+00:00Modest losses keeps indices near highs<p>The earlier 'bull trap' risks look safely put to bed as today's losses just dipped into yesterday's gains.</p>
<p>The S&P moved into a period of outperformance relative to the Russell 2000 ($IWM), although it came with higher volume (distribution) selling. The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger, although it has flat-lined for most of 2024.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq is working through a more substantial 'bearish engulfing pattern', but without the higher volume distirbution of the S&P. It has 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to work off, in addition to a relative underperformance to the S&P (but not the Russell 2000).</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is perhaps the index most vulnerable to further selling given it has finished on breakout support. The breakout remains intact, but further losses and a loss of the 20-day MA would signal something worse; a move back to $190 would seem to the most likely outcome on a loss of breakout support.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is the index that typically leads bull and bear markets. At the moment, it's still on the bulls side, but if there is a loss of breakout support before the end of the week then play it more cautious for the Nasdaq and S&P.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-47372871954095898832024-03-11T21:53:00.002+00:002024-03-11T21:53:23.691+00:00Minor losses don't deliver the reversal off bearish engulfing patterns<p>Markets were set up for a sizable down day, or at least one to undercut breakout support, but this didn't happen. While there was no real change on the day the fact that there was no major losses should be viewed as a positive.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) finish right on $205 support with no technical change. The index is still outperforming the Nasdaq and the S&P. I'm watching for an intraday spike down to the 20-day MA, but would expect a close above $205 to maintain the story for a successful breakout.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq also finished above psychological (and breakout) support of 16K with the 20-day just below this key support level. Today's volume didn't rank as distribution, but it was enough to see a new 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume - although this particular indicator has been in flatlined/whipsaw territory since the end of February.</p>
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<p>The S&P finished just above breakout support near 5,100, but without the 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. Again, I still think an intraday move to the 20-day MA would seem more likely, but a straight bounce off suport can't be ruled out.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcuSeOdLDYJ3QvGLxIbOxtVbxpV8VOm5uue0LIlmtT4IJDX_IgyNphLJlVTha9p0d-pX_81USRjVpXwQRay5JQixEHkgu9CpELFAftp49p6jY1Knx31N80uVKSAcLnjNHH3DCJ65-fFXCc5PV79cfe96WkjTYm2b3FZmkrWvYyXM8u_G3QGvaf/s1600/SPX_Mar11b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcuSeOdLDYJ3QvGLxIbOxtVbxpV8VOm5uue0LIlmtT4IJDX_IgyNphLJlVTha9p0d-pX_81USRjVpXwQRay5JQixEHkgu9CpELFAftp49p6jY1Knx31N80uVKSAcLnjNHH3DCJ65-fFXCc5PV79cfe96WkjTYm2b3FZmkrWvYyXM8u_G3QGvaf/s1600/SPX_Mar11b.png"/></a></div>
<p>Heading into tomorrow, watch for early losses in the first 30-60 minutes, and then buyers step in to bring things back above breakout support.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-74217407025919783782024-03-10T21:42:00.003+00:002024-03-11T09:24:30.427+00:00Bearish Engulfing patterns undermine attempts to break 'bull traps'<p>The 'bull traps' in the indies were on course to be negated by Friday's early surge, but by the close of business these potential follow on breakouts had morphed into more damaging bearish engulfing patterns. The good news is that breakout support levels remain intact, although a test of such supports should be seen as a minimum for Monday.</p>
<p>In the case of the Russell 2000 ($IWM), Friday's selling also ranked as distribution. The index still benefits from net bullish technicals and is outperforming peer indices.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq bearish engulfing pattern has come with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume on the verge of one. The index is underperforming both the S&P and Russell 2000 ($IWM) and registered confirmed distribution. Despite this weakness, breakout support remains intact.</p>
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<p>The S&P is also above breakout support. Selling volume was not as great as for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000, but it did edge enough to be considered distribution. The MACD remains on a 'sell' trigger although of the three indices it has best technicals outside of the MACD.</p>
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<p>Heading into Monday we have breakout support to consider across the lead indices. The likelihood of a loss of support is quite high and while this may seem damaging in the long term there is still plenty of support to lean on should sellers grab control. The first such support will come with 20-day MAs, and further selling on Monday could see this moving average tested for each index. If that proves to be the case, intraday violations are okay, but bulls will want to see an end-of-day close above the moving average to maintain current November-March rallies.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-91802192057101973582024-03-07T23:39:00.002+00:002024-03-07T23:39:57.027+00:00'Bull Traps' are still in play although today registered gains<p>Today was a bit of a mixed bag with all recording gains (good), but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) finished with a 'black' candlestick (close lesss than open price) that leaves bulls pressured and vulnerable to additiona losses.</p>
<p>In the case of the Russell 2000 ($IWM), the losses were not huge and selling volume was light and below the previous day's buying volume. Technicals remained net positive. The 'bull trap' is still the favored outcome following today's action</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>Things are more bullish for the S&P and Nasdaq. Both indices had registered potential 'bull traps', but both were able to post gains to challenge - and possibly negate - these traps. In the case of the Nasdaq, gains were enough to return a 'buy' trigger for On-Balance-Volume. The worst of the "bull raps" are behind these indices, but it will take a close above the 'bull trap' high to negate the bearishness of this pattern.</p>
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<p>The S&P 'bull trap' is holding to a flatlined 'sell' trigger in its MACD but has otherwise bullish technicals. The index is underperforming relative to the Russell 2000 ($IWM) although this relationship too has flat-lined.</p>
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<p>The likelihood is that all indices will continue their rallies and that the bearishness exhibited in the Russell 2000 will be negated by the more bullish setups in the Nasdaq and S&P. None of the indices are signalling blow-out tops, where I would expect the angle of ascent to sharpen beyond the steady 45 degrees we are seeing now.</p>.
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-19071785827953355512024-03-05T22:27:00.002+00:002024-03-05T22:27:47.617+00:00Warning! Potential 'Bull Traps' across Indices<p>A couple of days ago we were looking at breakouts, now we need to be watchful for 'bull traps'. We had the first triggers for one with the undercut of breakout support. The next few days will be critical as to whether these undercuts end as 'bull traps', but for now, consider these short signals with stops above the breakout highs.</p>
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<p>For the Nasdaq, the 'bull trap' came with 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and relative performance to the S&P.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) didn't suffer the same technical breakdown as the Nasdaq, but it did experience heavier volume distribution (although the volume itself wasn't that heavy). The index is still outperforming the Nasdaq and S&P despite the loss.</p>
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<p>The S&P is caught a little in the middle with a 'sell' trigger in a MACD that has effectively flatlined, but other technicals are still positive.</p>
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<p>Up until now, rallies have been honoring support on subsequent tests. Today marks the first real failing of such support. However, there remains support to be found at 20-day MAs, and these moving averages are likely to see such tests tomorrow or Thursday at the latest.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-55819052014621932222024-03-03T21:09:00.004+00:002024-03-03T21:16:15.509+00:00Across the board breakouts for indices<p>The week finished on a high with breakouts in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), S&P and Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 went a step further with a breakout on the weekly time frame too. The break on the weekly time frame for the Russell 2000 is critical as it marks the start of a right-hand-side base after repeated attempts to clear $195 ($IWM) had failed. If there is a concern (across the board) it's that breakout volume was modest.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq kept up with its step-by-step rally, delivering a breakout with new 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, although the former indicator had flatlined so it's not the most effusive 'buy' trigger.</p>
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<p>The S&P gained just under 1%, a little less than the Nasdaq, but the breakout was just as valid. The index has a much stronger accumulation trend than the Nasdaq, and with all indices in alignment on breakouts with Small Cap leadership, all indices should continue to perform well.</p>
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<p>Heading into next week, we may see some early weakness, and if we do, it will be important we don't see a close below Friday's open. If this was to happen, we would be at risk of a 'bull trap'. Intraday losses, even losses that undercut the breakout are okay, it's how markets finish that's important.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-81709421839399963412024-02-28T22:28:00.003+00:002024-02-28T22:28:50.394+00:00Markets respect resistance as gains stall<p>Up to now, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) had been doing most of the running, marked by the relative performance gains of this index against the S&P and Nasdaq, but today was the first stall in this rally. Technicals for the Russell 2000 are net positive and remain so despite today's loss. The index is well set up for a breakout next week - I wouldn't be too concerned with today's action.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq is defending the substantial breakout gap from last week and will soon have the 20-day MA to lean on as part of this defense. There are active 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to work off, but other technicals are positive.</p>
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<p>The S&P also has a breakout gap to defend with a similar technical picture as the Nasdaq, although On-Balance-Volume is still on a 'buy' trigger. And as with the Nasdaq, I will be looking to the 20-day MA to play an active supporting role.</p>
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<p>There isn't a whole lot to add, other than markets remain near all-time highs and it will ony take one good day to consume the losses of the last few days.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-18963398050948386502024-02-26T22:20:00.002+00:002024-02-26T22:21:31.188+00:00Russell 2000 ($IWM) makes small gains as part of three month base<p>While the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is not the leading index in the market it performed the best today, and is builidng a nice base after it's initial failure to break to new highs in early February. The Nasdaq and S&P didn't do a whole lot today, but breakouts from February are intact for both of these indices.</p>
<p>Technicals for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) returned net bullish with on-balance-volume on a new 'buy' signal. That said, the index is underperforming relative to both the Nasdaq and S&P. While today finished higher, the trading range neutralises the significance of the gain, and only when the range high or low is breached will we have a return to the November-January rally or a shift towards a more bearish stance.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>With the Russell 2000 doing most of the leg work today there wasn't a whole lot going on with either the Nasdaq or S&P. The Nasdaq posted a small loss, extending from Friday's loss. The breakout from February remains intact but there is a substantial breakout gap to close.</p>
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<p>The S&P closed Friday with a bearish black candlestick that followed up with losses on Monday. Technicals are a little muddled with a flatlined MACD but a generally bullish accumulation.</p>
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<p>For the coming week it will be down to the S&P and the Nasdaq to hang on to their breakouts while the Russell 2000 continues to build the right-hand-side of its base. Nasdaq breadth remains negative and it will take time before this recovers, but price leads in all respects.</p>
<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-29196548869261575432024-02-20T23:51:00.001+00:002024-02-20T23:51:17.397+00:00Markets back inside prior consolidations<p>After the long weekend markets continued to sell off, bringing the S&P and Nasdaq back to breakout support while the Russell 2000 ($IWM) shaped a potential double top.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) has an On-Balance-Volume 'sell' trigger while other technicals are net bullish. However, the reversal off $205 marks a potential double top, one that would be confirmed on a loss of $190.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>Both the Nasdaq and S&P eased back to breakout support, doing so on higher volume selling distirbution. The Nasdaq is underperforming both the Russell 2000 ($IWM) and S&P ($SPX) and is the index to likely retreat first back to its 50-day MA. As it stands, it's defending 15,550 breakouts support.</p>
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<p>Likewise, we have the S&P nestled against a micro-support level of 4,950 with good technical strength, barring the earlier MACD trigger 'sell'. As with the Nasdaq, today's trading volume registered as confirmed distribution.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow, bulls will need to show some resolve if this selling is not to become something more. I'm still liking for moves back to 50-day MAs, but tomorrow will be a chance for the first level of support to come into play and attract buyers.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-2913660408217190802024-02-18T22:32:00.000+00:002024-02-18T22:32:11.751+00:00Breakdown gaps close for S&P an Nasdaq <p>When the week started with breakdown gaps for the Nasdaq and S&P, it continued with moves to close said gaps, before peaking on Friday and reversing. Consequently, the likelihood of further losses heading into next week is quite high.</p>
<p>If we see losses, then 50-day MAs are the likely test. Since 2024, both the S&P and Nasdaq have be holding 20-day MA support, but a fourth test of the latter moving average would likely be a step too far (for the moving average to hold as support). Adding to the selling pressure are MACD 'sell' triggers. And as a final point, the Nasdaq is underperforming relative to the S&P, suggesting that if there is an index to crack first, it will be the Nasdaq.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had managed to post a new swing high before easing back below its peak in a potential bearish harami cross. Volume rose in distribution, compounding the initial selling. Technicals are net positive and the index is leading both the S&P and Nasdaq.</p>
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<p>If we start the week with a down day, then an undercut of last week's lows would look to be a minimum goal. Both indices have to work off their historic price extremes relative to their 200-day MAs. Investors have little to fear as such weakness will benefit the dollar-cost-average approach.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-84807779607112645232024-02-14T22:00:00.001+00:002024-02-14T22:00:37.376+00:00Russell 2000 ($IWM) fails its breakout, dropping back into the prior consolidation<p>I wouldn't classify it as a "bull trap" as Monday's breakout in the Russell 2000 was an internal base breakout, but the drop back into this base places greater significance on support around $190. Technicals are net bullish, but On-Balance-Volume is flipping around its 20-day MA trigger line and ADX is also a little topsy turvy. The MACD might prove to be the bellwether here, and for now, there is a 'buy' trigger above the bullish zero line.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq is recovering from its gap down, although there wasn't too much technical damage from this gap. Symmetry could be important here, and what happened in December could repeat here. If this proves true, the next breakout won't come until March. Technicals support this thesis.</p>
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<p>For the S&P, read the Nasdaq. Same setup, same potential outcome.</p>
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<p>The semicondcutor index has been performing relatively methodically, moving in step sequence through its bases. There are bearish diveregences for both the MACD and CCI which blow up the breakout and complete a double top.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow, we are probably looking at a support test of $190 in the Russell 2000 and a closure of the breakdown gaps in the S&P and Nasdaq. The Semiconductor Index is primed at resistance; any gain tomorrow would likely qualify it as a breakout, that would be positive news for both the S&P and Nasdaq.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-45884794676965999082024-02-12T21:51:00.002+00:002024-02-12T21:51:44.257+00:00Russell 2000 ($IWM) Breakout <p>Friday left the Russell 2000 ($IWM) primed for a breakout and Monday delivered on that setup. By the close of business, the Russell 2000 was left with a bullish "<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/three_white_soldiers.asp">three white soldiers</a>" setup and the potential for more upside. So while the Nasdaq and S&P are near market "extreme" tops, the Russell 2000 is still trading well within itself. Technicals for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) are net bullish and improving, but Monday's volume didn't register as accumulation.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq eased off its high, but the losses didn't do a whole lot of technical damage. It has been a number of months since the index last tested its 50-day MA, so if the selling was to continue then I would be looking at a test of this moving average.</p>
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<p>The S&P finished with a doji like the Nasdaq. What applies to the Nasdaq also applies to the S&P.</p>
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<p>After today's action indices have shown their hand. We have bearish doji in the Nasdaq and S&P that should deliver lower prices in the coming days, but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) may pause tomorrow, but I would be looking for gains to resume.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-25042673123774419382024-02-11T20:58:00.001+00:002024-02-11T20:58:25.092+00:00Russell 2000 ($IWM) ready to shape right-hand-side of base<p>Another solid day on Friday for indices with the Russell 2000 ($IWM) building up some nice momentum, but other indices did not disappoint.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) added over 1% as it reached resistance of the January swing high. Volume climbed to register a second day of accumulation in a row, increasing the probability of a breakout. Technicals returned net bullish with new 'buy' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. This technical improvement coincided with a bounce from the intermediate stochastic midline, a typical bounce point in a cyclical bull market. While Monday may not deliver another gain, I would be looking for an end-of-day close near resistance.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>Both the Nasdaq and S&P had finished Thursday with narrow range doji that at this stage of an advance frequently mark a top but this was not the case by close of business Friday as both indices were able to post gains. The Nasdaq currently sits 15.7% above its 200-day MA, that puts it above the 85% of historic price action for this index dating back to 1971, increasing the probability that a major top is not far away. We may be looking at a double top for this index, even if the index has just edged itself beyond the last peak in a potential bull market breakout. If this proves to be the case, then it will register as a 'bull trap'.</p>
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<p>The S&P is 12.6% above its 200-day MA, that's in the 90% zone of historic extreme price action dating back to 1950. This index has already surpassed the point where it could mark a double top, so if there is a top here then I would be looking for a sequence of higher highs and higher lows in a pullback to the low 4000s. Whereas I was of the opinion the break of 4,766 marked an end of the bear market and would not undercut this level, this is looking less likely given the degree of extension beyond the 200-day MA.</p>
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<p>While indices are approaching a level of heat associated with market tops, we are still seeing good strength in the semiconductor index, an index that can continue to drive the broader rally in the S&P and Nasdaq.</p>
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<p>For the coming week, we want to see how selling - when it comes - impacts on the new bull market breakouts, and whether these support levels can hold *should* sellers make a mark next week. Otherwise, we are going to keep drifting upwards.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-82571713696480710842024-02-08T22:30:00.002+00:002024-02-08T22:30:29.513+00:00A day the Russell 2000 ($IWM) shone<p>It was a real non-event for the S&P and Nasdaq, so it was left to the Russell 2000 to take up the slack. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) posted a solid gain to keep the momentum going from its successful 50-day MA test. If there was a concern it was that buying volume was a little disappointing, although today's trading registered as accumulation, continuing a trend of weakening volume since the initial sell off spike. Technicals for the Russell 2000 are also net bearish, despite today's gain.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq and S&P both finished flight with narrow doji. Technicals are net bullish and the only difference is that the Nasdaq is slightly outperforming the S&P. Market breadth is negative, so a some point this weakness will be represented in the markets, but what should happen and what actually happens are often two different things. </p>
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<p>Tomorrow, I would be looking for the Russell 2000 to continue its advance which would also mark a significant improvement for the weekly candlestick. If there is any profit taking in the Nasdaq and S&P I would be looking for the Russell 2000 to benefit, or at least, not suffer as much.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-60407889929254474382024-02-06T23:35:00.001+00:002024-02-06T23:35:05.285+00:00Small gains at 50-day MA for Russell 2000 ($IWM)<p>A bit of a non-event for the S&P and Nasdaq as both indices closed with tight doji near their highs. There isn't a whole lot more to add for these indices.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) managed to deliver a little more upside with a successful test of its 50-day MA. However, volume was well down on what I would like to see for a successful support test.</p>
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<p>I follow J.C. Parets and he has noted the breadth weakness in this rally. This is apparent in the Percentage of (Nasdaq) Stocks above the 50-day MA, 200-day MA, Bullish Percents Index and Summation Index, all of which are showing a bearish divergence.</p>
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<p>Given the breadth picture (in the Nasdaq), expectation is that tight trading will eventually give way to selling, or catch bulls off guard with a 'bull trap'. I would expect this selling to spill across indices, but let's see what the market brings.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-19952364273924324332024-02-04T21:55:00.006+00:002024-02-04T21:55:54.455+00:00The week closed with strong gains on higher volume accumulation<p>I got burned badly on my day trade expectations for Friday, but it was another solid end-of-week for market bulls. For the S&P, this meant further gains in relative performance over the Russell 2000 ($IWM) on overbought stochastics.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq took a slightly longer route to banking its weekly gain, experiencing a weekly intraday spike low. The Nasdaq is outperforming the S&P (outperforming the Russell 2000) and like the S&P it enjoys solid technical strength.</p>
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<p>I had expected more from the Russell 2000 ($IWM) but it spent another week experiencing further indecisiveness, closing with a "spinning top". However, the end-of-week finish is close enough to $195 support to consider support as holding. Technicals are a little more mixed with On-Balance-Volume switching to a 'sell' trigger as the index underperforms relative to peer indices.</p>
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<p>As a final note, one index performing well is the Semiconductor Index. It has defended its 20-day MA with considerable ease since October and should have enough momentum to return to a challenge of its January high at 4,566.</p>
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<p>For the coming week we may see a slow down in the weekly advance, but bulls have the edge. The post-Covid hangover bear market is near an end, but it may be a case of three steps forward, two steps back.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-34006583113520994902024-02-01T22:47:00.002+00:002024-02-01T23:48:33.832+00:00Bullish Hammer for Russell 2000 ($IWM) at 50-day MA<p>It was a good finish for the Russell 2000 ($IWM) as the index closed the day with a bullish 'hammer' at its 50-day MA. Taken in combination with yesterday's red candlestick makes a bullish harami, a reliable reversal pattern. The appearance of this candlestick when intermediate stochastics [39,1] are at the midline is another bullish marker. The only negative against a possible bullish day tomorrow is the fresh 'sell' trigger in the MACD.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq was able to bounce from its 20-day MA and horizontal support around 15,150. There is a breakdown gap from Tuesday to fill and I would be looking for this as a minimum for tomorrow. As for negatives, there was a new MACD 'sell' to go with an underperformance switch against the S&P. Today's buying also fell well short of yesterday's selling distribution.</p>
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<p>The S&P finished with a paired reversal that undid yesterday's selling. As with the Nasdaq, today's buying was below yesterday's distribution volume, but there were no corresponding 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume or index relative performance. The S&P is the index most likely to make new all-time highs, but has the smallest trade potential to close Tuesday's breakdown gap.</p>
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<p>New secular bull markets are in the making for the S&P, Nasdaq and (eventually) the Russell 2000. It's hard to fight the tape and with the election coming up later this year we can look for further gains. In addition, breadth metrics for the S&P and Nasdaq such as the percentage of stocks above their 200-day and 50-day MAs, and stocks on bullish percent 'buy' signals are on the bullish side of the fence, but are not overbought. As for tomorrow, I'm looking for upside.</p>.
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-17310307220270003932024-01-29T23:17:00.002+00:002024-01-29T23:19:05.925+00:00Day Trade in Nasdaq 100 delivered; what next?<p>It was a nice trade if you banked it for the Nasdaq 100, although all indices did well. Harder to know what may come next, but a challenge of the January 24th high looks a good prospect for the former index.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>Today offered a 'clean' trade for the indices. After a series of inside range-days in the Russell 2000 ($IWM) there was a white bullish candlestick to offer a solid direction for the index. Buying volume was down on Friday, but there was a new MACD trigger 'buy' in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume, returning the index to a net bullish technical picture.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq closed at a high on heavier volume accumulation, and in doing so, negated what had been three days of scrappy action. Technicals are net positive. Look for a series of small gains, similar as to what's gone in November and December.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFza9AdW8jE_cvF_N1pX2a8AdOqEfncp3VxWgjhY8SD9fkStXYphlmsbUeCu6UXCqPZrPylYCOXyqiycDLef06fE9ukog_-qK856e4ahhply2UP7Hd5RwaVAM1TtoG0w3WxIZiUBw47HTJ9wkpw6Z-QP5NyYqt1h-bLL9RA6p7kCe564W31QKK/s1600/compq_jan29b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFza9AdW8jE_cvF_N1pX2a8AdOqEfncp3VxWgjhY8SD9fkStXYphlmsbUeCu6UXCqPZrPylYCOXyqiycDLef06fE9ukog_-qK856e4ahhply2UP7Hd5RwaVAM1TtoG0w3WxIZiUBw47HTJ9wkpw6Z-QP5NyYqt1h-bLL9RA6p7kCe564W31QKK/s16000/compq_jan29b.png" /></a></div>
<p>The S&P closed at a new high, but without the higher volume accumulation of the Nasdaq. Again, the index could continue its run higher with a series of small gains; not enough to rock the boat, but over the course of the week could deliver a good return.</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSYG5Q0g1GbGKW0bVLSndwXj5t09odfvdJIVnC_k2NaqqoLJJiufQHlGJZCKZsgdxal8t_ReabknOpF0kKmicyfdd_q1oNKaE0stJztEpGzdd4k8Ot0JlRPtSS278ZKVxe1cfSParDq2YOxi4CgKK6ytOX4univkFEFlFwhpglokfj15ztrsmh/s1600/compq_jan29c.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0px; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="800" data-original-width="620" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSYG5Q0g1GbGKW0bVLSndwXj5t09odfvdJIVnC_k2NaqqoLJJiufQHlGJZCKZsgdxal8t_ReabknOpF0kKmicyfdd_q1oNKaE0stJztEpGzdd4k8Ot0JlRPtSS278ZKVxe1cfSParDq2YOxi4CgKK6ytOX4univkFEFlFwhpglokfj15ztrsmh/s16000/compq_jan29c.png" /></a></div>
<p>For tomorrow, what happens pre-market will likely determine how much gain there is to bank. A gap higher may leave markets with little wiggle room to add more, but I would be looking for this bullish run to continue.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-58095970380258883482024-01-28T21:52:00.002+00:002024-01-28T21:52:28.000+00:00Day Trade Suggestion: Buy Nasdaq 100<p>My experiment in day trading continues. Having burst out of the gates with some good success I have found myself treading water the last few weeks. Tomorrow offers an opportunity to get out of this rut. There is no significant economic data to move the needle, so action should be more technical in nature. The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) closed the price gap from January 24th in a successful test of support, but also registered a breakout in On-Balance-Volume accumulation. Momentum is oversold and the MACD is working off an earlier 'buy' signal, although a it's a signal that triggered below the bullish zero line, so it's a "weak" buy. However, collectively, I'm optimistic for a long trade near 17,400 if you can get it with an initial target of 17,600 - although I suspect it will go higher (for a number of days).</p>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg14zY0KO-m_U4wg3gHhrOeOlP2tEDL3UNbn1DTtLaGXRHT7i0G-Fe5DQfRt7GdpCT8iK_C7SEmKToU77bhRtjG1xie22prKEJMB0wezPHjSVpVGlJFNu2724nGRBoxUbvnbX9yngQzM3whqhfcGOA39WPncAfz3wzXWELhWnid25_YmSDShI66/s1600/ndx_jan28b.png" style="display: block; padding: 1em 0; text-align: center; "><img alt="" border="0" data-original-height="948" data-original-width="780" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg14zY0KO-m_U4wg3gHhrOeOlP2tEDL3UNbn1DTtLaGXRHT7i0G-Fe5DQfRt7GdpCT8iK_C7SEmKToU77bhRtjG1xie22prKEJMB0wezPHjSVpVGlJFNu2724nGRBoxUbvnbX9yngQzM3whqhfcGOA39WPncAfz3wzXWELhWnid25_YmSDShI66/s1600/ndx_jan28b.png"/></a></div>
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<a name='more'></a><p>If we take a step back now and look at the weekly time frames, we had another good week, even if action on the daily time was a little disappointing into the end-of-week, on the weekly time frame it's still ranked as bullish for many of the indices. The S&P registered an accumulation week with continued strength in technicals and relative performance to Small Caps.</p>
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<p>The Nasdaq also closed the week with accumulation, although the end-of-week candlestick was more neutral in nature. Technicals are net positive and the index continues to outperform both the S&P and Russell 2000 ($IWM). The index hasn't yet broken to a new all-time high, but it's heading in the right direction.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is still playing as the sleeper index. The index has gone from been rebuffed at $195 to now finding support at this price. There is also a fresh 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume to accompany the successful support test. The key moving averages have all converged as the index is caught in what is now approaching a 2-year consolidation, but once it makes it move, it will have strong momentum. Note the heavy pickup in trading volume since October 2023 lows.</p>
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<p>Opinion remains in a state of fear; the wars in Ukraine and Gaze, inflation, tech job layoffs and the rise of the right (once more), but markets are poised to kick off a new bull market. We may see some stalling around all-time highs, but my expectation is for a new secular bull market.</p>
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<p>Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-68622176354099840452024-01-24T23:52:00.003+00:002024-01-24T23:52:43.812+00:00Profit Taking Strikes Indices<p>Early buying momentum from pre-market through to morning trading had the potential to stamp bulls authority on markets, but by the close we are again looking at bearish 'black' candlesticks for the Nasdaq and S&P, with a bearish 'cloud cover' for the Russell 2000 ($IWM).</p>
<p>For the Nasdaq, we are perhaps looking at an opportunity to test breakout support of 15,150 although this process will likely take a 2-3 days of selling to achieve. Tomorrow is a logical place for this selling to start. Technical strength is bullish with little in the way of bearish divergences to indicate pending weakness, so it will be down to pre-market to determine if there will be a gap down.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The S&P is another index staring at a support test. This support test may come a little quicker than the Nasdaq and tomorrow could be the day. There was a recent 'buy' trigger in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume is working off new all-time highs (today's buying ranked as accumulation). The S&P is strongly outperforming the Russell 2000 after struggling at the end of 2023.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) doubled up on the bearishness. However, a move back to $189, that's also the 50-day MA for this index could provide a good launch point for continuation of the October-December rally. Long term, I'm more bullish for the Russell 2000, but we need a support confirmation test.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow, we have an easier downward path, but there is solid support across all indices not far below. At this stage, as we come close to the end-of-week I will be curious as to the impact this will have on the weekly charts.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-12002294234285576552024-01-22T23:23:00.001+00:002024-01-22T23:23:43.046+00:00Russell 2000 ($IWM) takes Monday's plaudits<p>It was not a great day for my day-trading experiment as I got stopped out of my Russell 2000 long position, but it was the Russell 2000 that banked the best gain of the day. Buying volume was below Friday's but the index was able to close above its 20-day MA. Intermediate stochastics found support at the mid-line, and On-Balance-Volume is about to trigger a 'buy' signal, although it will be a few days before the MACD follows suit.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq finished with a bearish "shooting star" that was also a black candlestick; watch for a gap down tomorrow. While price action is bearish, technicals are firmly bullish, helped by the new 'buy' trigger in the MACD.</p>
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<p>The S&P also finished with a black candlestick that went along with a new MACD trigger 'buy' following on from last week's 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. It's a 50:50 shot as to whether bulls or bears will win out; if you give the edge to bears, then watch for a gap down tomorrow.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow, the Russell 2000 is the best index for bulls. The S&P and Nasdaq are the indices most likely to deliver for bears.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-7570492317017134792024-01-21T20:31:00.000+00:002024-01-21T20:31:31.633+00:00Weekly charts got big boost on Friday's gains in markets<p>There was some concern heading into Friday that Thursday's gains were going to be clawed back, but I was surprised by the extent of the buying that did show up. The Nasdaq and S&P had the best of the action.</p>
<p>The S&P made a good "clean" breakout, ending the bear market kicked off at the end of 2021. The weekly buying volume was a little below par, but it was the price action that was most welcome. Weekly technicals are very strong - note the new high in on-balance-volume. Buyers are keen to get involved, although it comes at the expense of Small Cap stocks.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq hasn't made it to a new all-time high, but it continues to build the right-hand-side of its base. As with the S&P, the volume was a little light on the week but technical strength is good. The index is outperforming the S&P, which is in itself, an excellent sign given the move to all time highs in the latter index.</p>
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<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) was perhaps the only index to disappoint a little. It has the most room to mount a recovery and had successfully defended its 50-day MA on the daily time frame. The weekly chart shows a nice bullish hammer, so I would be looking for a positive week from the index, even if the weekly close was below that $196/7 support level.</p>
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<p>For next week, we may see some early selling in the Nasdaq and S&P that could benefit the Russell 2000 ($IWM) if it's able to attract some of the proceeds of those sales. By end-of-week, I would be looking for an advance in the Russell 2000, and for the S&P and Nasdaq an end-of-week finish comparable to, or better than, Friday's close.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10019704.post-68400237588373571372024-01-18T23:37:00.000+00:002024-01-18T23:37:18.182+00:00Strong finish may have come a day early for indices<p>It was a good day for bulls and I wish it was banked on Friday rather than today so that weekly candlesticks had a good finish. Instead, tomorrow will be a bit of a nail biter to ensure by close-of-business markets finish as good as, if not better, than they did today.</p>
<p>The Russell 2000 ($IWM) might offer the best chance for bulls. Yesterday delivered a positive test of the 50-day MA, but today's rally closed with an indecisive doji. It was a bit disappointing to see this kind of doji so soon in a bounce. Volume climbed to register as bullish accumulation but the trend indicator ADX, has switched to a new 'sell' trigger as had intermediate term stochastics, following earlier 'sell' triggers in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume to leave technicals net bearish. The relative underperformance of the index to the Nasdaq accelerated. What I do like that the index found support defined by the September swing high.</p>
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<a name='more'></a><p>The Nasdaq had an unsual candlestick. The bounce off the swing low finished as a "hammer", not one you typically see following a swing low as a candlestick like this is usually *the* swing low. As with the Russell 2000, today's volume ranked as accumulation, and technically, there is still a working MACD trigger 'sell'. The index is outperforming the S&P.</p>
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<p>The S&P has shaped a more traditional consolidation and today's action did conform to a more traditional candlestick commonly seen in "bullish morning star" reversal. The index did enjoy a day of confirmed accumulation, but there was a new 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. Of the three indices I track, this is the one most likely to breakout tomorrow.</p>
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<p>I haven't mentioned the Semiconductor Index in a while. It gapped higher in what could be said to be an "island reversal" - a generally bullish pattern - except it occurred near the end of the rally rather than the start. The trend has been strongly bullish and is once again outperforming the Nasdaq 100. There is a good chance for a test of the December high tomorrow which may see a pause in the advance.</p>
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<p>For tomorrow, I will be looking for the S&P to be the main performer, although the Russell 2000 ($IWM) has good potential to continue its recovery.</p>
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<div class="blogger-post-footer"><hr /> <a href="http://www.blog.fallondpicks.com">Fallond Stock Picks</a></div>Declan Fallonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01529005956420211656noreply@blogger.com