Monday, February 08, 2010

Stock Market Commentary: Drifting into Friday's Range

There wasn't the follow through Friday's reversal had looked to offer on paper. Large and Small Caps took the brunt of the selling. The Russell 2000 returned to the lower support band of its sharply falling channel - not quite touching but may do so tomorrow.


The S&P could barely manage a return into Thursday's losses. This failure gives some idea as to the level of overhead supply. However, there is a positive with developing bullish divergences in supporting technicals


Tech averages fared slightly better and were able to stay at the upper reaches of Friday's range.


The semiconductors - closest to their 200-day MA - finished with an indecisive 'spinning top' but also with a 'buy' trigger in the CCI; look for semiconductor leadership over the coming days.


Much depends on what the semiconductors do. Given their proximity to the 200-day MA they offer the best chance for a support bounce. If successful, it should help take the other indices higher - but it's hard looking at Monday's selloff in large cap indices not to think it will be more of the same (and then some) for Tuesday.


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